***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 7.1 8.2 83.2 55.6 46.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.1 8.9 97.7 62.1 50.0 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.3 8.6 87.6 57.8 48.3 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.9 11.3 8.5 80.8 55.9 46.3 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.6 9.0 83.8 56.5 47.5 5.5 9.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.6 9.3 9.2 89.8 58.6 47.6 4.4 7.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.5 8.8 95.8 61.2 49.6 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.9 14.8 10.2 90.2 58.8 49.5 7.8 12.1 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.6 9.5 84.1 56.0 47.9 4.5 7.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.1 10.3 10.4 88.1 57.7 48.9 4.9 8.4 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.5 10.0 8.6 85.8 57.2 47.8 5.4 8.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.5 8.6 88.1 57.8 48.4 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.4 10.6 8.9 89.7 58.1 48.2 5.2 8.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.2 10.7 91.8 59.6 50.1 5.4 9.9 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.5 7.8 77.2 55.9 45.6 3.3 6.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.0 8.1 84.0 56.5 47.2 4.5 7.6 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.4 10.0 9.4 103.2 64.4 51.2 3.1 6.2 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.3 9.2 11.3 85.7 57.3 49.2 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 9.7 8.8 96.4 61.6 49.8 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.2 12.6 86.9 57.7 49.7 5.3 9.0 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.0 9.0 84.5 56.1 47.7 4.3 7.6 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.2 9.9 105.3 65.6 52.8 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.4 9.0 93.3 60.4 49.3 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.9 10.3 10.1 85.5 57.3 48.7 4.4 8.2 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.8 9.1 9.0 78.7 54.1 45.7 4.3 8.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.5 8.6 89.1 58.2 47.6 4.4 7.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.9 8.7 79.8 54.1 45.7 3.4 6.8 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.6 9.2 8.1 81.3 56.7 46.9 4.2 7.5 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.5 14.7 11.9 85.9 57.2 49.4 6.6 11.8 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.0 9.2 8.6 93.3 60.3 49.2 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------