***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 4.0 9.2 78.9 54.2 44.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.0 8.8 82.4 57.3 47.5 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.5 9.3 80.4 55.0 45.9 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.8 9.2 82.9 55.7 46.8 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.0 9.3 82.6 54.6 46.0 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.6 9.4 89.1 58.4 49.3 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.8 8.7 83.0 57.1 46.9 1.9 3.7 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.4 10.7 87.7 57.3 47.8 3.7 6.7 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.1 9.8 81.6 53.9 45.2 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.4 10.8 86.0 56.1 47.0 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.7 9.0 86.1 56.1 46.7 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.7 9.1 88.4 57.4 47.4 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.9 6.7 9.3 90.1 57.6 48.0 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.9 11.9 85.1 56.6 47.7 3.7 6.5 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.4 9.0 85.9 58.7 47.3 2.1 4.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.4 8.7 88.1 57.1 47.8 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.7 8.6 85.6 58.9 47.3 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.0 12.4 85.3 56.6 48.0 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.0 9.0 81.4 56.6 47.1 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.1 7.8 14.5 83.9 57.0 48.4 3.0 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.5 9.6 80.6 54.2 45.1 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.6 9.1 86.1 58.5 47.4 2.5 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.2 9.5 80.2 55.1 46.0 2.5 4.5 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.0 11.3 84.4 56.3 47.3 3.6 5.9 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.5 10.0 79.1 54.0 45.0 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.5 9.5 94.7 60.5 50.9 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.4 9.8 79.6 54.3 45.1 2.1 3.9 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.7 8.9 87.4 58.1 48.2 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.9 13.6 85.2 56.9 48.5 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.5 8.9 81.1 56.3 47.0 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------