***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 1.0 8.4 78.6 53.4 44.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.0 7.5 78.1 53.1 43.0 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.9 8.6 81.4 53.9 45.3 2.0 4.1 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.8 5.9 9.0 76.3 50.6 42.8 2.9 5.6 9.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.9 9.4 81.3 53.2 45.6 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.2 9.3 78.5 52.2 44.5 1.6 3.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.2 7.3 76.9 52.8 42.3 1.6 2.9 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.5 10.7 87.3 57.2 49.3 3.9 7.6 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.0 10.0 84.8 55.3 47.4 1.9 3.4 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.2 11.0 88.5 57.5 49.4 2.3 4.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.3 8.9 80.7 53.5 46.2 2.1 3.9 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.5 8.9 81.3 54.3 47.1 1.5 3.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.0 9.0 78.9 52.4 45.7 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.7 10.6 85.1 56.0 47.9 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.1 3.8 8.5 70.9 50.1 41.3 2.0 3.8 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.1 3.7 8.3 75.3 50.6 44.2 1.7 3.6 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.7 3.5 7.3 82.2 55.0 43.5 1.7 3.1 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.1 12.3 91.1 59.0 50.5 2.6 4.8 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.5 7.9 79.5 53.5 43.8 1.8 3.9 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.9 6.6 14.3 92.1 59.3 50.5 2.7 5.0 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.5 9.4 83.0 54.3 46.3 1.9 3.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.7 7.7 80.6 53.7 43.5 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.1 8.7 82.2 54.1 44.8 1.6 3.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.3 10.6 86.7 56.9 48.7 2.2 4.3 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.9 4.0 9.6 79.1 52.9 44.1 1.5 3.5 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.7 3.2 9.1 82.3 55.1 47.7 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.9 4.0 9.0 77.9 52.8 43.8 1.7 3.6 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.9 8.5 73.0 50.1 42.4 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.1 9.6 13.3 92.3 59.5 50.7 3.8 7.1 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.5 7.7 77.5 52.9 43.2 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------