***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 16.9 32.1 69.3 32.5 32.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 18.2 22.2 32.0 76.5 39.0 37.6 19.4 28.0 38.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 25.9 27.6 33.0 71.6 34.3 34.2 27.0 36.8 48.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 25.3 27.7 34.5 71.8 34.3 34.0 26.8 37.5 49.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 26.7 28.1 34.1 71.0 31.8 32.5 28.6 38.3 49.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 20.2 21.6 32.8 73.3 33.8 34.0 21.3 30.2 40.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 18.6 22.4 31.7 76.9 39.3 37.7 19.1 28.3 39.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 36.5 41.6 38.7 77.9 38.9 37.8 37.8 49.5 62.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 18.2 18.7 35.6 71.4 32.4 33.2 19.0 27.0 36.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 24.1 26.6 39.0 75.8 36.4 36.2 25.0 33.8 43.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 23.7 25.6 32.2 72.1 33.3 33.6 25.4 34.3 44.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 20.7 23.6 32.4 74.2 35.7 35.2 22.0 32.0 44.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 23.1 25.3 32.4 72.9 33.5 33.6 25.0 34.3 45.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 33.8 37.5 40.8 75.8 37.8 37.3 34.8 45.2 56.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 35.7 20.6 34.7 75.1 39.9 38.5 16.2 28.0 43.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 20.6 21.7 30.5 70.2 31.4 32.0 22.5 31.1 41.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 17.2 24.0 33.1 84.2 45.5 42.1 17.9 26.5 37.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 21.4 24.3 43.9 76.8 37.6 37.3 22.0 30.7 40.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 20.8 24.7 32.5 75.1 37.8 36.8 22.3 31.3 41.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 44.9 34.5 53.4 81.9 42.3 40.7 29.0 39.1 50.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 23.0 24.5 34.4 70.9 33.0 33.4 24.5 33.0 42.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 19.8 26.7 34.9 83.6 44.7 41.8 20.7 29.5 40.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 20.1 23.0 34.0 73.8 36.2 35.9 21.6 29.4 38.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 29.7 32.2 39.1 74.2 36.1 36.1 30.8 38.3 46.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 24.4 24.4 35.7 68.7 31.2 31.8 25.4 35.7 47.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 19.7 21.9 33.4 76.6 37.5 37.0 19.6 28.2 38.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 20.4 20.7 34.1 68.7 31.4 31.8 21.6 31.1 42.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 19.1 21.5 33.3 73.8 36.7 35.9 19.4 29.7 42.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 39.9 44.9 47.8 78.8 39.3 38.7 40.4 52.7 65.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 18.6 21.1 31.7 73.4 36.2 35.4 19.6 28.3 38.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------