***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.9 5.6 1.7 69.2 68.4 2.0 3.8 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 5.7 5.8 6.0 1.8 70.6 69.9 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 5.5 6.7 5.7 1.3 63.6 63.0 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 0.5 1.2 2.1 0.9 60.0 59.5 -1.4 0.2 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 94 6 100 4.8 5.1 3.3 0.4 54.8 54.4 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.1 2.7 0.5 -1.4 35.6 36.1 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 5.6 5.6 5.8 1.8 71.1 70.3 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.6 -2.1 1.4 -1.2 38.4 39.0 -2.6 -1.2 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 5.7 6.5 4.5 0.8 59.4 58.7 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.4 4.1 2.5 -0.6 44.5 44.7 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 5.2 5.1 3.6 0.2 52.2 52.0 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 5.3 4.5 2.4 -0.4 45.2 45.3 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 5.0 3.9 2.6 -0.7 43.2 43.4 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 5.8 6.0 5.1 0.4 53.9 53.5 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 5.9 6.0 5.3 2.5 76.9 76.2 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 5.5 5.2 2.7 -0.1 49.1 49.0 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 5.0 5.2 5.7 1.6 70.1 69.4 1.2 3.0 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.7 2.0 1.8 -1.1 39.2 39.7 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 6.0 6.3 6.0 1.8 69.5 68.7 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -1.2 -0.9 -0.4 -2.2 29.9 31.0 -0.5 1.4 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 5.2 6.0 5.3 0.9 59.8 59.2 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 48 52 100 5.4 5.7 6.0 1.6 68.8 68.0 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 4.3 5.9 6.0 1.7 67.9 67.1 2.0 3.9 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 5.9 5.6 4.4 0.0 50.5 50.4 3.4 5.5 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 3.9 4.7 4.2 0.9 60.4 59.9 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.6 2.8 0.9 -1.3 37.0 37.4 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 5.0 6.3 4.9 1.2 64.0 63.5 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 4.6 5.5 3.3 1.2 62.5 62.1 2.3 4.2 5.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.1 0.1 1.1 -1.4 37.2 37.9 -0.3 1.4 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.8 5.9 1.8 70.3 69.6 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------