***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.4 3.8 0.6 56.6 55.3 1.5 3.6 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 3.9 4.1 4.0 0.7 57.1 55.9 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.6 4.1 0.5 55.0 54.0 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.1 51.2 51.0 -1.7 0.5 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.4 1.9 -0.2 48.1 48.2 2.5 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.1 3.2 0.3 -0.9 40.8 42.0 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.6 3.7 3.9 0.6 56.8 55.5 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -2.0 0.9 -1.0 40.6 42.2 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.4 2.9 0.0 49.9 49.8 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.4 3.9 1.6 -0.7 43.5 44.5 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.4 2.1 -0.3 47.1 47.4 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.3 1.4 -0.7 42.9 44.0 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.4 3.8 1.3 -0.7 42.6 43.5 2.6 4.7 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.1 3.3 -0.3 47.6 48.0 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.6 5.1 3.1 1.0 60.0 58.4 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.1 4.7 1.3 -0.5 44.9 45.3 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.5 3.9 0.6 56.4 55.1 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.1 1.3 -0.9 41.8 43.1 1.2 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.8 4.1 0.7 57.0 55.8 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.3 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 39.2 40.8 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.2 3.7 0.2 52.1 51.5 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.3 4.1 0.6 56.4 55.2 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.5 4.2 0.6 56.0 54.9 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.4 3.0 -0.3 47.3 47.6 3.4 5.7 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.7 2.5 0.2 51.8 51.3 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.3 0.6 -0.9 40.2 41.6 2.5 4.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.4 3.3 0.4 54.2 53.2 2.7 4.9 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.3 1.7 0.2 52.2 51.8 2.7 5.0 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 1.0 0.8 -0.9 41.4 42.6 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.9 4.0 4.0 0.7 57.1 55.9 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------