***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.8 3.8 3.3 -0.4 46.3 48.2 2.5 4.2 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.9 2.9 3.4 -0.3 46.7 49.3 1.4 3.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.1 3.7 -0.5 45.2 47.5 2.7 4.6 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.7 42.9 45.7 -1.9 0.3 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.5 1.5 -0.9 41.4 44.2 2.6 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.7 1.1 -0.8 42.7 44.6 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.5 2.5 3.5 -0.3 47.0 49.5 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.7 -0.4 1.6 -0.6 43.5 45.1 -1.4 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.3 2.4 -0.8 42.0 44.4 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.5 2.1 -0.8 42.7 44.6 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.5 1.6 -0.9 41.1 43.7 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.3 1.7 -0.8 42.1 44.1 3.3 5.2 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.4 1.2 -0.8 41.9 43.8 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.4 3.4 -0.5 45.5 46.8 2.7 5.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.6 1.4 -0.5 45.5 48.0 1.9 4.1 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.0 1.2 -0.9 40.8 43.3 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.6 2.6 3.6 -0.3 46.8 49.4 1.1 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 0.8 2.2 2.5 -0.6 44.8 46.0 1.1 2.7 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.2 3.6 -0.4 46.2 48.8 1.7 3.6 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -0.6 1.5 1.2 -0.2 48.2 48.2 -0.1 1.7 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.0 3.0 -0.7 43.2 45.6 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.0 3.6 -0.4 46.2 49.0 1.5 3.5 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.1 3.9 -0.4 45.9 48.1 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.4 4.7 3.2 -0.6 44.5 46.1 3.2 5.4 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.2 1.8 -0.5 44.7 46.5 2.1 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.4 3.9 1.3 -0.5 44.2 45.4 2.8 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.7 2.9 -0.4 46.3 47.8 2.3 4.1 5.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.7 0.8 -0.8 42.7 45.7 2.3 4.7 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 0.3 2.1 2.1 -0.4 46.6 47.3 0.6 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.8 2.8 3.3 -0.3 46.9 49.3 1.3 3.1 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------