***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 4.4 5.6 12.5 115.7 68.4 51.5 1.9 3.3 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.1 5.9 9.8 99.9 62.7 47.5 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.7 8.5 12.6 118.2 69.1 51.7 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 6.5 9.3 14.4 128.7 72.4 54.6 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.9 13.6 122.4 70.4 51.8 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.7 9.6 12.8 120.2 69.8 52.6 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.9 5.6 9.4 98.2 61.8 47.3 1.9 3.7 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.8 12.9 15.3 127.0 71.8 54.9 3.7 6.7 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.0 9.4 15.3 131.8 73.2 56.1 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.9 11.3 15.4 128.4 72.2 54.6 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.7 13.7 127.5 71.9 55.6 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.9 10.8 14.0 129.3 72.5 56.3 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.1 10.8 14.0 126.6 71.7 55.8 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.9 12.3 16.5 128.3 72.1 53.9 3.7 6.5 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.3 8.4 14.1 130.0 73.0 53.6 2.1 4.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.8 9.2 13.6 128.1 72.1 56.2 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.8 9.0 92.1 59.4 46.1 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.8 9.9 16.7 131.5 73.1 55.3 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.2 6.4 10.5 104.2 64.3 48.4 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.5 12.1 19.7 121.3 70.2 53.3 3.0 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.7 9.8 14.2 127.4 71.9 54.4 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.1 9.9 96.7 61.8 47.0 2.5 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.4 11.9 111.8 66.9 50.3 2.5 4.5 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.8 10.7 15.7 131.5 73.1 55.1 3.6 5.9 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.7 13.9 118.5 69.3 52.1 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.6 8.7 13.1 116.8 69.1 52.1 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.3 6.8 12.8 114.3 67.9 51.6 2.1 3.9 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.1 7.7 13.9 131.3 73.1 54.9 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.1 14.3 17.8 129.2 72.4 54.6 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.9 10.5 104.3 64.4 48.2 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------