***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.9 9.9 89.5 59.9 49.9 1.8 3.5 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.9 8.6 87.7 59.2 48.7 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.5 10.3 96.4 62.2 51.7 2.0 4.1 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.5 11.1 93.9 61.6 51.2 2.9 5.6 9.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.6 11.3 96.6 61.8 52.4 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.4 10.8 97.6 62.1 53.3 1.6 3.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.9 3.9 8.5 86.4 58.7 48.4 1.6 2.9 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.9 11.5 12.8 98.7 62.8 53.5 3.9 7.6 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.5 5.0 12.0 99.0 62.8 53.4 1.9 3.4 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.4 6.2 12.8 100.9 63.3 54.1 2.3 4.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.7 11.5 101.1 63.5 54.1 2.1 3.9 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.5 11.5 98.7 62.9 53.8 1.5 3.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.3 11.6 96.6 61.6 53.3 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.9 12.8 97.0 61.7 51.2 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.2 6.0 11.0 95.8 63.7 49.4 2.0 3.8 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.7 11.2 98.7 62.5 53.3 1.7 3.6 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.6 7.8 79.4 55.4 44.5 1.7 3.1 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.1 7.0 13.6 100.9 63.4 53.8 2.6 4.8 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.6 9.0 89.9 59.8 49.4 1.8 3.9 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.0 16.7 92.9 60.6 51.0 2.7 5.0 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.2 5.9 11.0 96.1 62.0 52.4 1.9 3.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.9 7.8 77.7 55.0 44.1 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.3 9.9 94.4 61.1 50.8 1.6 3.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.5 12.4 101.2 63.5 53.5 2.2 4.3 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.3 11.1 89.4 59.6 50.5 1.5 3.5 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 3.4 3.5 10.4 87.0 58.8 50.7 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.1 10.4 88.8 59.4 49.8 1.7 3.6 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.3 5.9 10.6 96.0 62.6 50.9 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 10.4 14.4 97.6 62.1 52.6 3.8 7.1 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.6 9.2 90.9 60.6 50.3 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------