***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 40.9 40.0 50.4 119.8 69.5 63.1 17.7 26.6 37.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 32.0 34.0 37.8 102.7 59.7 54.4 19.4 28.0 38.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 50.8 51.0 50.1 120.0 69.6 63.2 27.0 36.8 48.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 54.7 58.4 61.8 131.5 74.9 68.3 26.8 37.5 49.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 54.2 61.8 67.1 141.3 79.9 73.8 28.6 38.3 49.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 43.6 47.3 56.4 127.7 73.6 68.0 21.3 30.2 40.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 32.6 35.0 37.6 103.7 60.3 55.0 19.1 28.3 39.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 64.7 68.2 64.3 124.3 71.9 66.2 37.8 49.5 62.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 40.0 46.2 64.8 136.0 78.1 71.5 19.0 27.0 36.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 48.1 55.1 69.3 136.7 78.7 72.5 25.0 33.8 43.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 47.9 52.7 62.4 132.9 76.4 70.7 25.4 34.3 44.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 46.2 47.0 55.7 119.4 69.4 63.6 22.0 32.0 44.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 50.2 57.1 66.8 137.3 78.8 73.4 25.0 34.3 45.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 60.2 63.2 64.3 125.4 73.2 66.7 34.8 45.2 56.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 34.4 38.1 45.1 103.3 61.0 52.4 16.2 28.0 43.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 45.4 50.2 61.8 133.5 76.8 71.1 22.5 31.1 41.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 30.5 29.4 34.6 95.0 55.0 50.5 17.9 26.5 37.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 45.4 53.1 73.2 138.2 79.8 73.4 22.0 30.7 40.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 35.5 37.6 39.5 103.8 60.3 55.0 22.3 31.3 41.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 52.3 54.1 79.4 120.7 70.0 64.2 29.0 39.1 50.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 46.0 49.3 59.1 130.0 74.9 68.1 24.5 33.0 42.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 34.0 31.0 34.9 91.5 52.6 48.1 20.7 29.5 40.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 33.3 36.2 44.0 107.9 62.7 57.1 21.6 29.4 38.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 49.6 53.8 65.3 134.4 77.6 71.1 30.8 38.3 46.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 53.5 60.1 66.2 137.7 78.3 71.4 25.4 35.7 47.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 39.6 42.0 57.0 122.3 71.0 65.2 19.6 28.2 38.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 47.5 49.9 56.8 128.1 73.8 66.9 21.6 31.1 42.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 34.7 45.3 52.5 119.4 69.1 61.7 19.4 29.7 42.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 70.6 77.2 74.7 131.8 76.3 70.1 40.4 52.7 65.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 32.7 36.1 40.6 107.4 62.5 56.8 19.6 28.3 38.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------