***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 9999.0 1.2 0.8 3.7 78.6 77.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 0.2 1.3 0.9 4.1 82.7 81.1 -4.7 -2.8 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 1.8 2.4 0.8 4.0 80.0 79.0 -2.5 -0.8 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 -4.1 -4.8 -4.1 1.2 61.4 60.3 -7.5 -5.8 -4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 -0.4 0.0 -1.2 3.4 76.0 74.9 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 -2.1 -2.2 -4.8 1.9 65.5 65.0 -5.8 -3.9 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 0.3 1.2 0.7 3.9 81.7 80.1 -4.7 -2.7 -0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 -4.9 -4.5 -1.8 4.3 80.0 79.3 -9.0 -7.5 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 0.9 1.3 -0.1 4.0 79.7 79.0 -3.9 -2.1 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 0.3 1.0 -0.9 4.5 81.4 80.6 -4.6 -2.7 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 0.1 0.6 -1.1 3.9 78.8 78.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 4.0 78.7 78.1 -5.5 -3.6 -1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 0.3 0.7 -1.3 4.3 79.9 79.3 -5.1 -3.1 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 0.7 1.3 0.2 4.8 82.1 81.1 -3.5 -2.0 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 -2.7 -2.8 -4.0 0.5 55.8 55.6 -5.2 -3.4 -1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 0.3 0.7 -1.7 3.7 77.1 76.3 -3.9 -2.2 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 -0.2 1.0 1.0 4.4 84.4 82.4 -4.7 -3.0 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 -2.1 -1.7 -2.0 4.3 78.5 77.8 -6.7 -4.9 -3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 0.4 1.3 0.9 4.1 82.3 80.9 -4.4 -2.6 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 -3.3 -2.7 -2.9 4.5 80.6 79.8 -9.9 -7.5 -5.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 0.5 1.1 0.6 3.8 78.5 77.7 -4.3 -2.4 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 -0.3 1.2 1.4 4.5 85.5 83.7 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 0.0 0.5 0.5 4.0 81.1 80.0 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.7 4.1 78.6 77.8 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 2.7 73.4 71.9 -4.2 -2.6 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 -0.5 -0.3 -2.0 3.4 77.0 76.2 -5.3 -3.4 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 0.8 1.4 0.1 3.3 77.3 75.9 -4.2 -2.1 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -3.4 -3.2 -3.9 1.0 58.9 58.5 -5.8 -4.1 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 -2.4 -2.1 -3.0 4.0 77.0 76.3 -6.8 -5.1 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 0.6 1.5 0.9 3.9 81.4 79.9 -4.5 -2.5 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------