***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 9999.0 -0.1 -0.7 2.8 77.6 74.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 -1.0 -0.4 -0.8 3.0 79.2 76.2 -4.4 -3.0 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 0.8 1.3 -0.8 3.0 79.0 76.2 -2.1 -0.9 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 -4.4 -4.2 -4.1 1.9 70.9 68.3 -7.1 -5.8 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 -1.7 -1.3 -2.9 2.5 75.9 72.9 -4.4 -3.2 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 -3.0 -2.9 -5.4 1.7 68.6 66.2 -5.3 -4.2 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 -1.0 -0.3 -0.8 2.9 78.6 75.6 -4.3 -2.9 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 -6.2 -5.8 -3.8 2.6 76.3 73.0 -8.1 -7.3 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 -0.7 -0.2 -1.9 2.8 78.3 75.1 -3.7 -2.4 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 -1.6 -1.0 -3.0 2.8 78.0 74.6 -4.3 -3.1 -2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 -1.6 -1.1 -3.0 2.7 77.4 74.3 -4.7 -3.4 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 -2.6 -2.1 -3.4 2.7 76.1 73.1 -5.4 -4.2 -3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 -2.0 -1.4 -3.6 2.7 76.8 73.9 -5.0 -3.7 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 -0.5 0.1 -1.9 3.2 80.7 77.4 -3.4 -2.2 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 -1.5 -1.4 -3.7 1.8 70.6 68.0 -4.4 -3.1 -1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 -1.1 -0.6 -3.6 2.6 76.8 73.8 -3.7 -2.6 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 -1.4 -0.7 -0.6 3.0 79.9 76.7 -4.5 -3.2 -2.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 -3.7 -3.1 -3.7 2.8 76.7 73.2 -6.5 -5.2 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 -1.0 -0.3 -0.8 3.0 79.7 76.7 -4.1 -2.8 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 -6.3 -5.6 -4.9 2.5 75.8 72.3 -9.4 -7.9 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 -1.0 -0.5 -1.2 2.8 78.1 75.2 -3.9 -2.7 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 -1.4 -0.6 -0.4 3.2 81.3 78.1 -4.5 -3.2 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 -1.3 -0.6 -1.0 3.0 80.3 77.2 -4.2 -3.0 -1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 -1.5 -0.9 -2.3 2.9 78.3 75.1 -4.2 -3.0 -1.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 -1.2 -0.9 -2.6 2.4 75.5 72.5 -3.8 -2.7 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 -2.2 -1.8 -3.9 2.3 74.3 71.6 -4.8 -3.6 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 -0.5 0.0 -1.5 2.7 76.9 74.0 -3.9 -2.5 -1.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 -2.7 -2.5 -3.9 1.9 71.2 68.4 -5.3 -4.1 -2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 -3.7 -3.3 -4.4 2.6 75.7 72.3 -6.2 -5.0 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 -0.7 -0.1 -0.8 2.9 78.8 75.9 -4.1 -2.7 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------