***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 9999.0 6.3 4.9 2.8 79.6 75.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 5.4 6.3 4.8 3.2 80.9 77.1 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 6.9 7.9 5.4 3.1 81.4 77.5 3.3 4.8 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.0 73.6 70.0 -0.9 0.4 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 6.4 7.0 3.7 2.6 78.3 74.4 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.8 2.2 1.7 71.1 68.1 2.9 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 5.1 5.8 4.5 3.0 79.9 76.2 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 0.6 1.0 3.3 2.3 76.9 73.4 -1.4 -0.5 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 7.5 8.4 4.8 2.9 81.1 76.9 3.8 5.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 6.3 7.0 4.1 2.6 78.8 75.0 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 6.7 7.5 3.9 2.7 79.9 76.0 3.2 4.7 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 7.0 7.6 3.6 2.5 78.1 74.6 3.6 5.1 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 6.2 6.9 3.1 2.3 77.0 73.4 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 7.5 8.5 5.2 3.0 81.0 77.2 3.7 5.3 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 5.7 6.1 2.6 1.9 73.5 69.6 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 7.1 7.8 3.3 2.5 78.5 74.6 3.7 5.1 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 4.9 5.8 4.6 3.1 81.0 77.1 1.5 2.9 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 4.2 4.5 3.6 2.2 74.6 71.3 1.7 2.8 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 5.9 6.9 5.2 3.3 81.7 77.8 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 2.9 3.0 1.7 1.6 70.2 67.5 0.4 1.6 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 6.9 7.8 5.1 3.0 80.9 76.8 3.4 4.9 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 5.7 6.8 5.2 3.3 82.5 78.6 2.2 3.6 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 5.7 6.7 5.5 3.3 82.3 78.4 2.3 3.7 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 7.7 8.5 4.9 2.7 78.8 75.1 4.1 5.6 7.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 5.4 5.8 3.4 2.4 77.3 73.4 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 5.5 6.0 2.5 1.9 74.0 70.8 3.1 4.2 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 6.5 7.2 4.1 2.6 78.2 74.5 3.0 4.5 5.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 6.7 7.1 2.7 2.0 73.9 70.1 3.0 4.6 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 3.7 3.9 2.8 1.9 72.2 69.4 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 5.4 6.2 4.9 3.1 80.6 76.9 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------