***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 9999.0 8.9 6.1 3.9 82.3 79.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 6.6 8.0 6.4 4.5 84.9 82.6 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 8.4 10.0 7.1 4.7 85.5 83.2 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 67.5 65.4 -1.4 0.3 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 7.4 8.4 4.9 3.7 80.3 78.1 2.7 4.7 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 6.4 6.6 3.1 2.5 72.9 71.8 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 6.3 7.5 5.9 4.1 83.2 81.0 1.3 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 1.3 2.0 5.0 4.0 82.2 80.6 -2.5 -1.0 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 8.9 10.7 6.8 4.7 85.9 83.7 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 8.0 9.4 6.1 4.5 84.2 82.4 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 8.2 9.5 5.7 4.4 83.9 82.0 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 8.0 9.1 5.2 4.1 82.7 81.2 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 7.9 8.9 5.2 4.0 82.5 81.1 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 9.0 11.0 7.5 5.2 87.1 85.2 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 5.2 4.5 2.3 1.2 63.5 61.4 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 8.5 9.5 5.0 4.0 82.2 80.4 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 5.8 7.4 6.1 4.4 84.9 82.3 1.1 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 5.8 6.1 5.0 3.5 78.3 77.0 1.5 3.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 7.3 9.1 6.9 4.8 86.4 84.2 1.9 4.0 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 4.1 4.4 3.2 2.9 76.2 75.1 -0.6 1.3 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 8.1 9.5 6.8 4.4 84.3 81.8 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 6.7 8.6 6.9 4.9 87.5 84.9 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 7.0 9.0 7.3 5.2 87.9 85.8 1.9 3.9 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 9.2 10.5 6.7 4.4 83.2 81.5 3.3 5.6 7.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 5.7 6.5 4.5 3.1 78.6 75.4 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 6.8 7.1 3.6 2.9 77.6 76.2 2.4 4.2 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 7.5 8.7 5.4 3.6 81.0 78.3 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 6.5 5.9 2.4 1.6 65.1 63.6 2.3 4.3 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 4.3 4.6 4.1 3.2 76.8 75.8 -0.4 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 6.6 8.0 6.5 4.4 84.3 82.1 1.6 3.5 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------