***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 7.0 5.3 3.4 76.3 73.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 5.8 6.5 5.1 3.6 77.0 74.1 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 7.7 8.6 5.7 3.6 77.0 74.0 2.5 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 3.2 3.6 3.2 2.8 73.5 70.8 -2.1 0.3 2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 7.1 7.7 4.2 3.2 75.3 72.3 2.3 4.4 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 6.6 6.9 2.9 2.6 72.4 69.1 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 5.4 6.1 4.9 3.4 76.3 73.5 1.0 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 0.7 1.2 3.9 3.1 75.3 72.1 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 8.0 8.9 5.3 3.5 76.8 73.5 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 6.7 7.3 4.6 3.3 75.7 72.5 2.4 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 7.3 8.1 4.4 3.4 77.0 73.6 2.4 4.5 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 8.1 8.8 4.2 3.3 76.7 73.5 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 7.3 7.9 3.6 3.1 76.0 72.6 2.4 4.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 8.2 9.0 5.4 3.5 75.9 72.8 2.8 5.2 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 6.3 7.0 3.4 2.8 73.9 70.9 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 7.9 8.6 3.9 3.3 76.6 73.1 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 5.1 5.8 5.0 3.4 76.7 73.7 1.0 2.8 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 4.5 4.9 4.2 3.1 73.7 70.7 0.9 2.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 6.5 7.4 5.5 3.7 77.4 74.4 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 4.0 4.1 2.3 2.5 70.8 68.3 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 7.5 8.4 5.5 3.5 77.0 73.8 2.6 4.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 6.1 7.0 5.4 3.6 77.5 74.3 1.5 3.5 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 6.3 7.1 5.8 3.7 77.4 74.3 1.5 3.6 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 8.5 9.2 5.3 3.4 75.3 72.3 3.3 5.6 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 5.6 6.2 3.8 3.0 74.8 72.0 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 6.4 6.7 3.2 2.9 75.8 72.6 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 7.4 8.0 4.5 3.2 75.2 72.4 2.5 4.7 6.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 7.5 8.1 3.6 3.0 74.6 71.5 2.0 4.5 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 4.7 5.0 3.4 2.8 72.3 69.6 0.0 2.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 5.7 6.5 5.2 3.6 76.9 74.0 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------