***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 7.3 3.5 2.1 68.1 63.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.5 6.5 3.4 2.3 69.5 64.8 1.1 3.6 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.0 7.9 3.9 2.2 68.9 63.8 2.3 4.9 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 3.4 3.2 1.8 1.8 67.0 62.4 -1.0 1.1 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 7.1 6.7 2.4 1.7 65.9 61.2 2.1 4.5 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.0 5.2 1.1 1.0 59.6 56.4 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 6.0 5.9 3.2 2.2 69.0 64.5 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.6 1.3 1.8 1.2 61.3 57.6 -1.3 0.3 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 8.4 8.0 3.2 1.8 66.3 61.1 2.8 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 1.7 6.1 2.5 1.4 62.9 58.6 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.7 2.4 1.6 64.9 60.2 2.3 4.7 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.9 2.2 1.4 63.1 59.1 2.5 5.0 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.0 1.6 1.2 61.3 57.8 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 8.4 8.2 3.5 1.9 66.8 61.6 2.7 5.4 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 6.9 6.9 2.2 2.0 69.4 64.2 1.8 4.1 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.1 1.9 1.4 64.0 59.6 2.6 5.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 5.8 5.8 3.3 2.2 69.7 64.7 0.7 3.0 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.5 3.7 2.1 1.1 60.2 56.7 0.8 2.6 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 7.1 7.1 3.7 2.4 69.8 64.8 1.4 4.0 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.9 2.1 0.3 0.5 54.8 53.3 -0.5 1.5 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 7.8 7.6 3.6 2.0 67.9 62.6 2.5 5.0 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 6.7 6.9 3.7 2.4 70.8 65.4 1.2 3.7 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.5 4.0 2.3 69.5 64.3 1.2 3.7 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.2 8.4 3.3 1.7 65.2 60.3 3.4 6.0 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.0 2.2 1.7 66.4 62.0 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.4 1.3 1.1 60.6 57.4 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 7.3 7.0 2.8 1.8 66.6 62.3 2.1 4.6 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 8.1 7.8 2.2 1.9 68.0 63.0 2.7 5.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 0.2 3.8 1.3 0.8 57.5 55.0 0.7 2.9 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.3 3.5 2.3 69.2 64.6 1.0 3.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------