***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 4.4 4.5 2.0 67.2 64.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.1 4.4 2.2 68.1 65.1 1.5 3.3 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 6.4 6.4 4.8 2.0 67.0 64.1 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.8 1.9 2.5 1.7 65.1 62.0 -2.0 0.1 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.8 3.2 1.6 64.2 61.4 2.8 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.0 1.6 0.7 56.7 55.6 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 4.8 4.8 4.2 2.1 67.9 65.0 1.1 2.9 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 0.5 0.8 2.5 1.0 59.6 58.1 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.9 4.1 1.6 64.1 61.4 3.4 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.1 5.7 3.3 1.3 61.2 59.3 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.3 6.0 3.1 1.4 62.9 60.4 2.7 4.6 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.3 2.8 1.1 60.5 58.8 3.4 5.2 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.2 2.1 0.9 58.6 57.3 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.7 4.5 1.6 63.2 61.1 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 6.4 6.2 2.7 1.7 65.6 62.2 2.1 4.2 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.2 2.5 1.2 61.5 59.4 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 4.7 4.8 4.2 2.2 68.2 64.9 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.4 3.7 3.1 1.0 59.1 57.8 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 5.6 5.6 4.7 2.2 67.9 64.9 1.8 3.7 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.6 2.5 1.1 0.6 55.5 55.2 0.2 1.9 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 6.7 6.5 4.4 1.8 65.8 62.8 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 5.5 5.6 4.6 2.2 68.3 65.1 1.8 3.6 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 5.3 5.3 5.0 2.1 67.0 64.1 1.8 3.6 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.9 4.3 1.5 62.7 60.6 3.3 5.4 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.1 5.0 3.0 1.7 65.6 62.5 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.3 1.9 0.8 58.4 57.2 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 4.6 5.7 3.7 1.8 66.0 63.1 2.4 4.1 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.6 2.8 1.7 64.9 61.9 2.5 4.7 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.3 2.3 0.8 57.2 56.4 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 5.0 5.0 4.5 2.1 67.9 65.0 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------