***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 7.5 11.0 68.0 48.1 42.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 9.9 10.3 11.5 84.1 57.6 51.9 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.4 8.7 10.1 62.9 44.6 40.1 6.0 10.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.7 8.8 52.7 37.5 34.6 4.7 8.6 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.7 6.8 9.3 57.2 38.7 35.9 5.7 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.2 5.1 8.2 54.2 38.6 34.6 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 9.7 10.9 11.7 89.5 59.6 53.9 4.0 7.9 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.1 9.4 56.8 36.8 34.7 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.1 3.8 9.5 57.3 37.3 34.7 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.3 4.6 9.6 57.5 36.7 34.6 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.4 6.0 9.0 57.9 38.9 36.0 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.7 5.3 9.0 57.5 38.0 35.3 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.4 5.2 9.3 59.7 38.8 35.5 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.7 9.9 11.0 65.2 45.3 41.5 6.6 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.5 3.9 6.8 43.1 36.3 33.1 3.2 7.3 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.0 4.7 9.0 58.4 39.4 36.0 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 8.9 11.5 12.3 102.6 64.6 58.7 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.7 4.6 10.0 58.3 37.7 35.5 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 10.6 9.5 11.1 76.6 53.5 48.2 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.6 6.0 11.4 56.1 37.4 35.5 5.1 9.0 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.1 6.2 10.1 61.2 41.8 38.1 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 9.7 11.7 12.7 99.5 62.8 57.7 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.5 6.7 10.7 68.1 47.9 43.1 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.8 6.0 10.0 60.3 41.2 38.0 4.4 8.1 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.5 9.1 11.2 64.9 45.0 40.3 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.4 3.7 8.6 53.3 35.6 32.6 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.5 8.6 12.0 71.5 49.5 44.1 4.6 8.7 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.4 4.9 7.7 48.7 36.6 33.6 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.6 7.6 10.4 57.8 37.5 35.4 6.5 11.4 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.5 9.4 11.1 75.9 53.4 47.8 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------