***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 10.3 13.7 130.6 72.8 61.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 12.5 13.3 13.4 132.6 73.4 61.4 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 17.7 17.8 13.9 129.9 72.6 61.5 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 16.3 13.2 116.4 68.5 58.5 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 16.5 16.1 13.9 120.2 69.5 59.2 6.1 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.9 13.0 14.5 117.1 68.7 56.6 4.7 7.9 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.5 15.4 13.5 137.8 74.8 62.8 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 20.5 21.3 15.4 125.1 71.1 60.6 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 13.6 13.2 14.6 119.8 69.2 59.2 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.5 15.4 122.7 70.2 60.4 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 14.8 14.8 13.6 123.7 70.7 59.6 5.2 8.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.8 13.7 123.6 70.7 59.1 4.7 8.7 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.8 16.5 14.7 124.8 71.1 59.5 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 20.6 21.5 16.8 134.9 74.1 65.0 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 11.8 11.6 104.0 64.9 55.3 3.5 7.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 14.1 13.6 13.4 120.1 69.6 58.1 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 12.0 13.8 13.3 136.1 74.4 61.9 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 13.7 14.0 17.0 122.5 70.2 61.0 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 13.5 14.1 13.7 131.1 73.0 61.6 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.8 16.8 19.7 122.9 70.4 61.8 5.5 9.6 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 15.2 14.9 14.0 122.2 70.1 59.3 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.6 12.3 13.5 128.3 72.3 60.6 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 13.3 14.2 14.4 132.5 73.4 62.8 4.1 7.3 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 17.3 17.5 15.8 127.7 71.9 62.5 4.5 8.6 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 15.7 16.3 15.1 130.2 72.6 61.3 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.5 15.2 14.6 126.1 71.6 60.1 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 14.4 15.5 15.0 134.8 74.0 62.4 3.3 6.7 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.4 12.8 12.2 109.7 66.4 56.4 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 21.7 22.1 18.3 122.9 70.4 61.8 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 13.2 13.8 13.5 132.5 73.4 61.7 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------