***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 9.4 10.9 115.6 69.1 57.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.6 8.3 10.5 122.6 70.9 57.9 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 11.0 9.9 10.2 111.1 67.3 56.6 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.5 12.5 11.0 109.8 67.3 54.5 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.9 9.4 11.0 111.1 67.9 56.8 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.0 6.2 10.9 110.1 67.4 55.8 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.6 7.1 11.1 130.4 72.9 59.0 1.9 3.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 15.8 15.6 11.9 117.3 69.6 59.0 3.8 7.8 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.2 7.0 11.4 113.2 68.2 58.0 1.9 3.9 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 8.9 8.7 12.2 118.1 69.6 59.3 2.2 4.5 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.0 7.0 10.6 114.7 68.8 57.4 1.7 3.6 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.8 6.1 10.2 109.5 67.2 56.8 2.1 3.7 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 4.7 6.0 10.7 105.8 66.0 56.1 1.7 3.4 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 12.9 12.9 12.1 121.7 70.5 59.7 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.4 8.0 10.3 108.8 67.1 51.5 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.7 6.5 10.3 111.1 67.7 55.8 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.7 7.5 10.7 132.0 73.4 59.0 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 9.8 9.9 13.5 122.2 70.7 60.5 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.7 9.5 10.1 115.9 68.9 56.8 2.0 4.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 9.3 10.1 16.2 127.2 72.3 60.9 2.6 4.9 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 9.6 8.6 10.8 111.5 67.6 57.5 2.3 4.7 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.8 10.4 10.6 126.1 71.9 58.6 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.6 9.1 10.0 111.5 67.5 56.3 2.1 4.8 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 10.4 9.9 11.7 116.6 69.0 58.9 2.6 5.2 9.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 10.0 9.2 12.3 116.3 69.4 58.4 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 3.6 4.3 10.1 102.0 64.7 54.4 1.5 2.8 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 9.0 8.5 12.3 119.6 70.2 58.8 2.0 4.1 7.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.7 7.5 10.4 109.9 67.3 52.9 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.5 14.6 125.6 71.7 61.1 4.0 7.8 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.6 8.2 10.6 120.0 70.1 57.6 1.8 4.0 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------