***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 48.9 49.5 104.3 60.1 55.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 33.2 39.3 48.1 113.0 65.7 59.2 19.5 28.7 39.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 43.0 43.7 48.3 101.7 57.9 53.7 27.9 38.3 50.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 42.3 40.4 49.3 96.5 54.0 51.1 26.8 37.6 49.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 42.1 42.1 51.3 100.4 57.0 54.2 28.3 37.9 48.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 34.3 35.2 50.8 100.8 57.2 54.7 22.0 30.8 41.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 33.4 41.9 48.6 118.0 68.4 61.7 19.2 28.5 39.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 54.1 55.1 54.6 102.1 57.9 55.2 36.9 48.9 62.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 31.7 31.7 52.6 100.5 56.7 54.0 20.7 28.3 37.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 37.4 38.5 55.2 102.6 58.2 55.7 25.1 33.8 43.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 37.2 38.3 49.7 102.2 58.3 55.6 25.1 33.7 43.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 36.5 36.7 49.2 100.6 56.9 54.2 22.5 32.1 43.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 36.9 39.1 52.0 102.8 58.8 55.7 24.8 33.8 44.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 51.2 56.1 56.9 108.6 63.2 58.5 36.4 46.8 58.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 34.9 28.0 43.2 88.2 49.0 46.5 17.2 28.8 44.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 34.2 35.2 49.4 101.7 58.0 55.1 22.1 30.6 40.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 39.9 41.5 48.1 122.2 70.6 63.0 17.6 26.7 37.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 35.3 37.1 59.8 104.2 59.5 56.5 23.0 31.7 41.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 37.5 41.4 48.0 108.4 62.8 56.8 23.1 32.7 43.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 43.9 45.1 69.1 103.1 58.8 55.3 29.4 39.4 50.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 38.0 38.0 50.7 100.7 56.9 53.6 25.5 34.1 43.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 43.9 42.7 49.4 117.5 68.1 61.1 19.9 29.4 40.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 35.9 37.3 49.2 105.1 60.5 55.0 22.6 31.2 40.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 42.8 44.5 54.5 104.1 59.4 55.9 32.5 40.0 47.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 41.4 43.3 54.6 104.4 60.2 56.1 26.3 36.4 47.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 30.9 30.7 49.5 98.3 55.4 52.5 19.3 27.7 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 36.9 40.9 54.3 108.3 62.8 58.1 22.3 32.0 43.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 34.3 31.4 46.1 94.0 52.6 49.9 19.5 29.5 41.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 57.0 60.1 63.5 104.7 59.9 56.5 40.2 52.3 65.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 34.5 38.6 48.2 109.0 63.3 57.4 20.6 29.8 40.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------