***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -2.2 -2.2 0.6 56.8 56.4 -5.0 -3.0 -1.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 -1.3 -1.7 -1.7 1.2 63.2 61.6 -4.7 -3.0 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 -0.5 0.0 -1.9 0.9 60.5 59.3 -2.7 -1.0 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -5.3 -5.3 -4.5 0.5 55.9 55.3 -8.0 -6.0 -4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -2.8 -4.0 0.6 56.5 55.9 -5.2 -3.5 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -3.4 -4.3 -7.1 -0.3 47.0 47.7 -5.7 -4.0 -2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -1.8 -1.8 1.1 61.6 60.4 -4.7 -2.9 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -6.8 -7.8 -6.7 -0.2 47.5 48.3 -9.2 -7.5 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 -0.8 -1.1 -3.1 1.4 65.4 63.2 -4.6 -2.7 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -2.8 -2.9 -5.3 0.5 55.4 54.8 -4.9 -3.4 -2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 -3.1 -3.0 -4.6 0.6 56.9 56.0 -5.3 -3.6 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -3.6 -4.3 -5.9 -0.1 49.4 49.8 -6.0 -4.2 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 -3.0 -3.9 -6.2 -0.2 47.6 48.3 -5.5 -3.6 -1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 -0.7 -1.1 -3.3 1.4 64.5 62.3 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 -0.9 -0.8 -2.0 1.7 70.3 67.3 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -2.7 -5.8 0.0 49.8 50.2 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 -1.5 -1.9 -1.4 1.3 64.3 62.7 -5.0 -3.3 -1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -4.8 -5.0 -5.9 0.4 53.7 53.5 -7.1 -5.4 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 -1.2 -1.7 -1.8 1.2 63.7 61.9 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -6.9 -9.0 -8.1 -0.8 41.1 43.1 -10.1 -7.8 -5.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 -2.4 -1.5 -2.2 1.2 63.1 61.6 -4.9 -3.0 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 -1.4 -1.8 -1.4 1.4 64.9 63.1 -4.9 -3.2 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 -1.5 -1.9 -2.0 1.3 64.6 62.5 -4.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -2.8 -2.0 -3.6 1.2 63.4 61.4 -4.9 -3.3 -1.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -2.6 -3.3 0.3 53.5 53.6 -4.6 -2.9 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 -3.0 -4.4 -6.8 -0.7 42.4 43.8 -5.3 -3.7 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 -1.8 -2.2 -2.9 0.2 52.1 52.5 -4.3 -2.4 -0.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -3.4 -3.0 -3.9 0.9 60.3 58.9 -5.8 -4.1 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -4.5 -5.3 -7.1 0.0 49.6 50.0 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -1.6 -1.9 0.9 60.3 59.1 -4.6 -2.8 -1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------