***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.0 2.8 -0.3 46.3 47.9 1.3 3.4 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.6 3.5 0.3 53.3 54.1 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.6 4.4 3.3 -0.3 47.1 48.8 2.5 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 1.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.7 42.6 44.6 -2.1 0.3 2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.1 3.6 1.3 -0.6 42.8 44.7 2.3 4.4 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 1.4 2.3 -0.3 -1.5 34.1 36.9 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.2 3.2 0.2 51.8 52.9 1.0 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.6 -2.5 0.5 -1.2 36.6 39.8 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.0 4.8 2.5 -0.3 46.5 47.9 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.1 1.3 -1.1 38.9 41.7 2.4 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.3 3.6 1.6 -0.6 42.8 44.8 2.4 4.5 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.9 3.8 1.0 -0.9 40.2 42.8 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 1.9 2.7 0.6 -1.3 35.6 38.5 2.4 4.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.1 4.7 3.1 -0.4 45.9 48.2 2.8 5.2 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 4.5 4.6 2.8 0.5 55.9 55.4 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.0 3.5 0.6 -1.1 37.9 40.5 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.3 3.6 0.5 55.1 55.6 1.0 2.8 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.2 1.2 0.8 -1.4 35.4 39.0 0.9 2.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.5 4.0 3.6 0.3 52.7 53.7 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -1.9 29.9 34.2 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.3 3.1 -0.3 46.7 48.0 2.6 4.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.2 3.9 0.5 55.5 55.9 1.5 3.5 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.3 3.8 3.7 0.2 51.7 52.8 1.5 3.6 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.5 4.7 2.6 -0.7 42.7 45.2 3.3 5.6 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.1 2.5 1.5 -0.7 41.9 43.7 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.0 2.8 0.2 -1.2 36.4 39.1 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.6 3.5 2.0 -0.8 41.0 43.2 2.5 4.7 6.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.3 3.9 1.3 -0.4 46.2 47.5 2.0 4.5 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.4 0.0 0.2 -1.6 33.1 37.1 0.0 2.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.9 3.2 3.2 0.0 50.4 51.7 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------