***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.1 3.2 0.4 53.6 52.6 2.4 4.7 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.4 3.3 0.6 56.0 54.7 1.1 3.6 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.7 3.7 0.6 55.4 53.9 2.3 4.9 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 50.2 50.2 -1.0 1.1 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.0 1.7 0.4 53.7 52.6 2.1 4.5 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.7 1.4 0.6 55.3 54.3 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.9 3.3 0.6 55.9 54.7 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.9 0.7 1.6 0.5 54.5 53.6 -1.3 0.3 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.2 2.7 0.5 55.0 53.5 2.8 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.0 2.1 0.5 54.7 53.6 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.4 1.8 0.5 55.2 53.9 2.3 4.7 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.8 1.8 0.6 55.4 54.4 2.5 5.0 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.1 1.4 0.5 54.7 54.1 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.5 3.5 0.8 56.9 55.2 2.7 5.4 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.3 1.2 0.1 51.2 51.0 1.8 4.1 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.7 1.4 0.5 54.3 53.5 2.6 5.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.0 3.6 0.7 57.2 55.6 0.7 3.0 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.1 2.3 0.5 54.7 53.7 0.8 2.6 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.9 3.5 0.7 56.1 54.6 1.4 4.0 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.3 52.6 52.4 -0.5 1.5 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.8 3.2 0.6 55.4 53.8 2.5 5.0 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.7 3.6 0.7 56.7 55.0 1.2 3.7 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.6 3.9 0.7 56.4 54.8 1.2 3.7 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.9 3.2 0.6 55.6 54.1 3.4 6.0 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.0 1.6 0.1 51.2 50.7 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.6 1.1 0.3 53.4 53.3 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.9 2.6 0.2 52.1 51.6 2.1 4.6 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.4 0.8 0.2 51.6 51.3 2.7 5.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.4 1.8 0.5 54.4 53.6 0.7 2.9 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.2 3.2 0.5 55.0 54.0 1.0 3.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------