***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.7 5.0 3.7 1.2 60.2 58.5 2.6 4.1 5.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.3 3.7 1.2 59.9 58.2 1.5 3.3 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.6 4.1 1.2 59.5 57.6 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 55.4 54.7 -2.0 0.1 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.1 1.9 0.9 57.5 56.4 2.8 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 5.9 5.4 1.7 1.4 61.3 59.5 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.5 4.1 3.8 1.3 61.0 59.3 1.1 2.9 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.5 0.7 1.9 1.0 58.2 57.0 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 5.9 6.3 3.0 1.1 58.6 57.1 3.4 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.1 5.4 2.5 1.0 58.6 57.3 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.6 2.1 1.0 58.8 57.6 2.7 4.6 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.2 2.1 1.1 59.1 57.8 3.4 5.2 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 6.3 5.4 1.7 1.2 60.4 59.0 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.2 3.9 1.3 59.7 57.5 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.8 1.2 0.6 54.8 54.2 2.1 4.2 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 6.8 6.0 1.8 1.1 59.5 58.2 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.6 4.0 3.9 1.2 60.1 58.3 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.7 2.8 1.2 59.3 57.8 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.6 3.9 1.1 59.2 57.4 1.8 3.7 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.7 1.0 0.9 57.8 57.0 0.2 1.9 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.7 3.5 1.1 58.9 57.3 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.5 3.9 1.0 58.4 56.9 1.8 3.6 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.5 4.2 1.1 58.7 56.6 1.8 3.6 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.5 3.7 1.2 59.5 57.7 3.3 5.4 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.3 1.9 0.9 57.8 56.8 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 6.3 5.4 1.5 1.0 59.3 58.5 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.7 5.1 3.1 1.2 60.0 58.5 2.4 4.1 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.4 1.0 0.7 55.7 54.8 2.5 4.7 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.5 2.3 1.1 58.9 57.6 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.8 4.2 3.7 1.3 60.1 58.4 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------