***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 8.7 13.3 11.3 112.5 67.9 64.9 3.7 7.3 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 9.6 9.4 7.2 74.5 54.1 50.6 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 11.7 15.2 10.9 104.1 64.9 62.0 6.0 10.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 10.0 14.2 12.4 109.6 67.0 63.8 4.7 8.6 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 17.3 19.2 17.1 149.1 77.3 73.4 5.7 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 8.9 14.0 13.0 121.2 70.1 65.4 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 9.4 9.5 7.4 77.8 55.6 51.6 4.0 7.9 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 19.7 21.7 16.0 136.3 73.9 69.1 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 12.1 12.6 14.5 134.0 73.8 70.3 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 14.1 15.8 17.2 148.9 77.5 73.2 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 16.9 18.7 15.8 141.9 75.8 71.5 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 13.8 14.8 13.6 125.9 71.4 66.6 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 15.7 17.6 17.6 145.8 76.7 71.6 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 13.2 17.3 13.5 106.5 65.3 61.8 6.6 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 9.2 7.7 6.4 63.3 51.3 47.0 3.2 7.3 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.6 14.3 126.7 71.7 67.3 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 9.1 7.2 6.1 63.8 49.3 45.6 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 13.3 14.5 17.1 142.8 76.1 71.8 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 9.8 10.2 7.9 78.8 56.0 52.9 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 16.1 17.0 17.9 127.4 71.5 66.7 5.1 9.0 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.1 13.2 122.7 70.7 67.8 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 9.5 7.7 6.4 62.7 48.6 45.6 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 8.1 9.4 9.2 86.8 58.9 56.5 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 14.5 15.4 14.5 126.1 71.5 67.7 4.4 8.1 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 20.1 21.9 17.0 146.5 76.8 73.8 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 12.8 14.1 14.8 134.2 73.8 68.6 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.5 17.5 13.5 128.7 72.2 68.8 4.6 8.7 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 9.6 11.2 9.4 89.5 60.2 55.9 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 21.7 23.2 17.4 137.2 74.4 69.8 6.5 11.4 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 9.6 10.7 8.1 84.0 57.9 54.5 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------