***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 12.2 14.0 14.5 136.0 74.3 62.4 3.2 6.3 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.9 10.6 10.2 109.4 66.8 55.3 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 16.4 18.2 14.0 132.1 73.3 61.3 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 17.1 19.7 15.6 141.6 75.8 63.0 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 16.7 18.6 16.1 139.7 75.3 62.9 6.1 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 13.2 15.2 15.1 136.7 74.5 62.7 4.7 7.9 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.9 12.2 10.0 111.9 67.6 56.0 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.7 22.2 17.0 130.8 72.9 60.2 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 13.6 15.5 16.9 139.4 75.2 63.8 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 15.2 17.5 17.3 136.1 74.4 62.2 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 14.4 16.2 16.3 135.9 74.3 62.7 5.2 8.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.3 17.6 15.7 128.3 72.2 60.5 4.7 8.7 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 16.4 17.8 16.4 134.9 74.0 63.6 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 18.8 20.4 17.2 129.9 72.6 60.7 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 14.1 12.0 119.6 70.1 55.4 3.5 7.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 14.2 16.1 15.9 138.1 74.8 63.9 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.0 9.5 8.8 99.1 63.3 52.9 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.2 15.8 18.3 135.8 74.3 62.4 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.8 12.0 11.1 113.5 68.0 55.8 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.3 16.5 19.6 120.8 69.8 56.9 5.5 9.6 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 15.5 17.2 16.0 138.8 75.1 64.0 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.9 9.2 96.7 62.7 52.3 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.4 12.6 12.6 118.3 69.2 56.0 4.1 7.3 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.7 19.1 17.2 136.4 74.5 63.2 4.5 8.6 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 15.5 17.8 16.2 140.2 75.3 62.7 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.3 14.6 14.8 121.6 70.3 58.2 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 13.6 16.5 15.7 142.6 75.9 63.9 3.3 6.7 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.4 15.5 13.5 130.7 73.0 59.1 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 22.3 23.8 19.1 131.4 73.0 61.0 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.7 12.4 11.5 119.6 69.9 57.8 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------