***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 8.9 8.4 11.9 120.3 70.0 56.3 2.1 4.3 7.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.6 9.2 11.5 134.3 74.0 59.4 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 11.2 10.9 11.8 121.2 70.3 56.9 2.4 5.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.5 14.2 14.4 125.4 71.5 58.7 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.9 9.4 13.2 114.0 67.8 56.1 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.8 5.9 12.3 108.8 66.1 53.3 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.7 7.4 11.6 135.1 74.2 59.1 1.9 3.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.0 13.2 13.1 105.2 64.6 53.2 3.8 7.8 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.3 6.4 12.8 106.5 65.2 54.0 1.9 3.9 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.2 7.2 13.0 103.7 64.0 53.3 2.2 4.5 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.0 6.5 12.6 111.1 66.9 55.3 1.7 3.6 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.8 5.9 12.3 108.6 66.0 53.4 2.1 3.7 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.9 6.2 13.2 112.1 67.0 54.2 1.7 3.4 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.8 12.3 14.2 118.1 69.1 55.2 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.2 10.3 14.8 134.8 74.2 59.8 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.8 6.5 12.8 113.5 67.7 55.2 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.8 7.4 11.1 130.0 72.9 58.5 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.0 13.2 102.6 63.4 51.9 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 10.3 11.3 11.6 132.2 73.4 59.6 2.0 4.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.9 7.8 16.9 104.5 64.1 52.8 2.6 4.9 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.6 8.5 12.4 112.2 67.3 55.0 2.3 4.7 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.7 10.5 11.2 126.5 72.0 59.4 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 10.4 11.0 12.3 129.4 72.6 59.0 2.1 4.8 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.0 9.2 12.8 110.7 66.5 53.8 2.6 5.2 9.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.4 9.1 13.5 118.3 69.3 56.7 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.6 5.0 13.7 119.6 69.7 55.2 1.5 2.8 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 8.8 8.2 12.3 117.8 69.2 56.0 2.0 4.1 7.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.6 8.5 13.6 123.5 71.1 58.0 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 12.1 14.3 104.3 63.9 52.0 4.0 7.8 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 8.5 9.4 11.9 134.5 74.0 59.2 1.8 4.0 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------