***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 40.7 42.8 52.0 123.4 70.8 65.0 19.3 28.2 38.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 32.7 38.1 41.4 109.5 64.0 58.7 19.5 28.7 39.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 42.3 52.3 50.2 118.7 68.7 62.7 27.9 38.3 50.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 41.8 54.9 58.0 124.2 71.3 65.1 26.8 37.6 49.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 49.7 55.2 61.4 129.9 74.2 67.9 28.3 37.9 48.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 34.6 44.2 54.6 121.0 70.1 63.0 22.0 30.8 41.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 32.9 39.3 41.5 112.2 65.4 59.6 19.2 28.5 39.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 65.0 70.2 64.0 126.6 73.3 66.1 36.9 48.9 62.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 31.1 40.4 58.9 122.1 70.8 64.4 20.7 28.3 37.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 45.4 49.0 63.6 125.9 73.0 66.2 25.1 33.8 43.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 44.5 49.4 59.9 128.6 73.9 67.7 25.1 33.7 43.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 45.4 49.2 57.8 124.6 72.1 65.1 22.5 32.1 43.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 45.4 51.3 62.8 129.9 74.8 68.1 24.8 33.8 44.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 50.7 59.8 60.4 116.5 67.9 60.8 36.4 46.8 58.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 34.9 42.4 48.5 110.2 64.6 58.4 17.2 28.8 44.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 41.5 45.6 58.0 126.2 72.8 66.3 22.1 30.6 40.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 31.2 34.3 39.1 105.7 61.8 56.6 17.6 26.7 37.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 35.1 46.2 65.5 123.8 72.3 64.9 23.0 31.7 41.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 36.6 42.9 43.3 110.5 64.5 59.0 23.1 32.7 43.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 52.8 55.8 79.3 123.7 72.1 64.0 29.4 39.4 50.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 36.9 47.2 56.1 122.1 70.6 64.5 25.5 34.1 43.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 33.7 36.5 40.4 103.2 60.3 55.3 19.9 29.4 40.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 34.7 40.7 47.3 112.6 65.6 59.4 22.6 31.2 40.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 42.5 50.4 59.4 120.7 70.2 63.4 32.5 40.0 47.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 46 54 100 49.1 55.9 62.3 131.2 74.4 68.4 26.3 36.4 47.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 39.7 42.9 59.1 126.2 72.9 65.1 19.3 27.7 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 45.6 49.9 56.3 127.9 72.9 66.9 22.3 32.0 43.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 34.1 43.1 51.1 116.0 67.5 61.3 19.5 29.5 41.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 67.3 72.1 69.9 124.1 72.5 64.6 40.2 52.3 65.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 33.8 41.2 44.4 114.8 66.7 60.9 20.6 29.8 40.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------