***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 -0.6 -0.4 -0.9 2.6 71.2 68.4 -3.3 -2.0 -0.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 2.8 73.1 70.4 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 0.8 0.9 -0.8 2.6 72.9 70.1 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 -3.8 -3.4 -3.6 2.9 74.0 71.3 -7.7 -6.0 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 -1.3 -1.3 -3.3 2.7 71.7 69.1 -4.2 -2.9 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -2.4 -2.5 -5.7 2.1 68.4 65.2 -5.1 -3.8 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 2.7 72.6 70.0 -4.7 -3.0 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -5.4 -5.5 -5.2 2.1 67.9 65.5 -8.4 -7.0 -5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 -0.4 -0.4 -2.9 2.5 70.6 68.1 -3.6 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 -1.2 -1.3 -4.5 2.2 68.6 66.1 -4.2 -2.8 -1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 -1.3 -1.3 -4.3 2.4 69.9 67.5 -4.4 -3.0 -1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 -2.2 -2.3 -4.8 2.3 68.7 66.3 -5.4 -3.9 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 -1.8 -2.0 -5.2 2.0 67.3 64.3 -4.8 -3.4 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 -0.3 -0.3 -3.0 2.5 71.3 68.2 -3.4 -2.1 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 -0.6 -0.1 -2.4 3.0 75.9 73.3 -4.0 -2.5 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 -0.9 -1.0 -4.8 2.3 69.1 66.3 -3.6 -2.4 -1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 -1.2 -1.0 -0.5 2.7 72.5 70.0 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 -3.1 -3.2 -5.2 2.1 67.5 65.0 -6.4 -4.9 -3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 2.7 73.4 70.5 -4.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -5.7 -6.1 -6.3 1.8 66.0 63.3 -9.7 -7.8 -6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 -0.8 -0.7 -1.6 2.6 71.7 69.1 -3.9 -2.5 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 -1.1 -1.0 -0.8 2.7 72.8 70.2 -4.6 -3.1 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 -0.8 -0.7 -1.1 2.7 73.5 70.6 -4.2 -2.7 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 -1.3 -1.3 -3.4 2.5 70.8 68.1 -4.3 -2.9 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 -0.9 -0.7 -2.2 2.7 72.4 69.4 -3.5 -2.3 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 -1.8 -2.0 -5.3 2.0 67.2 64.7 -4.6 -3.3 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 -0.9 -0.7 -1.4 2.6 71.0 68.2 -4.2 -2.7 -1.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 -1.8 -1.6 -3.5 2.8 73.4 70.9 -5.0 -3.6 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 -3.3 -3.5 -5.6 2.1 67.2 64.6 -6.4 -4.9 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 2.7 73.0 70.2 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------