***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 5.4 6.8 5.1 1.8 66.1 63.5 2.5 4.7 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 5.9 6.0 5.2 2.0 67.6 65.1 1.0 3.5 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 7.3 7.4 5.7 2.0 67.2 64.2 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.0 68.0 64.8 -1.2 0.8 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 6.7 6.6 3.7 1.8 66.5 63.4 2.2 4.5 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.6 5.3 2.8 1.2 61.0 58.9 1.9 4.0 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 5.5 5.5 5.1 1.9 67.3 64.9 0.7 3.1 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 1.9 1.7 3.4 1.6 65.1 62.2 -1.4 0.2 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.7 4.6 1.8 66.0 62.6 2.8 5.4 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.2 6.3 4.0 1.7 65.0 61.9 2.1 4.3 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 7.0 6.8 3.7 1.8 66.3 63.3 2.3 4.6 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.1 3.7 1.6 65.9 63.0 2.6 4.9 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 6.8 6.0 3.0 1.3 62.4 60.5 2.1 4.4 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 8.0 7.8 5.3 1.9 66.7 62.9 2.5 5.2 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.1 3.7 2.2 69.8 66.6 1.8 4.3 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.8 7.0 3.3 1.6 64.4 61.8 2.7 5.0 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 5.3 5.4 5.3 1.9 67.5 64.9 0.6 3.0 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 4.4 3.9 4.1 1.6 64.2 61.1 0.7 2.4 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 6.4 6.5 5.5 2.1 67.9 65.1 1.4 3.9 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.5 2.7 2.3 1.2 62.3 60.0 -0.5 1.3 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.8 7.2 5.1 1.8 66.1 62.9 2.6 5.0 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 5.9 6.1 5.4 1.9 67.8 65.0 1.1 3.5 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 6.0 6.2 5.9 2.1 68.0 64.8 1.2 3.6 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 8.6 8.3 5.1 1.9 66.4 62.7 3.4 5.9 8.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 6.1 5.8 3.7 1.7 65.6 62.9 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.4 5.8 2.9 1.3 63.7 61.7 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.4 6.6 4.5 1.6 65.2 62.7 2.2 4.5 6.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 7.6 7.6 3.2 2.0 67.4 64.3 2.5 5.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 5.1 4.3 3.6 1.5 63.5 60.7 0.6 2.7 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 5.9 5.9 5.2 2.0 67.4 65.0 1.0 3.4 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------