***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 6.1 7.2 6.6 2.9 84.3 81.4 2.7 4.0 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 5.6 6.6 6.7 3.0 83.7 81.1 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 7.1 8.3 7.2 3.1 85.2 82.0 3.4 4.8 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 2.4 3.7 4.3 3.2 86.7 82.7 -0.9 0.4 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 6.5 7.9 5.3 3.0 85.5 81.6 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 6.0 7.0 4.3 2.6 83.2 79.2 2.9 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 5.4 6.2 6.4 2.9 83.3 80.8 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 0.7 1.5 4.8 2.6 84.0 79.4 -1.4 -0.5 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 7.6 9.0 6.3 3.1 85.8 81.7 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 6.4 7.6 5.6 2.9 84.8 80.3 3.1 4.5 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 6.8 8.2 5.5 3.0 85.7 81.7 3.2 4.7 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 7.0 8.3 5.1 2.7 84.6 80.4 3.7 5.1 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 6.4 7.5 4.9 2.6 82.7 78.7 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 7.5 9.1 7.2 3.2 85.8 81.9 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 6.3 8.0 5.4 3.3 87.2 83.4 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 7.2 8.5 4.9 2.8 84.2 80.3 3.7 5.1 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 5.1 6.0 6.5 2.9 83.7 81.1 1.6 3.0 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 4.2 5.2 5.5 2.7 83.5 78.9 1.7 2.8 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 6.1 7.2 6.9 3.1 84.3 81.5 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 3.1 3.9 3.6 2.2 81.1 75.7 0.5 1.6 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 7.0 8.3 6.8 3.0 85.5 81.8 3.4 4.9 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 5.9 6.9 6.7 2.9 84.0 81.1 2.2 3.6 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 5.8 7.0 7.3 3.2 85.5 82.3 2.3 3.7 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 7.8 9.3 6.8 3.0 85.1 81.1 4.1 5.6 7.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 5.5 6.7 5.5 3.0 85.5 81.9 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 5.9 6.8 4.3 2.4 82.8 78.8 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 6.7 7.9 6.1 2.8 84.1 80.9 3.0 4.5 5.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 7.2 8.7 4.8 3.2 85.9 81.9 3.0 4.7 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 3.8 4.8 4.8 2.5 82.8 77.9 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 5.6 6.6 6.6 3.0 83.7 81.1 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------