***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.0 8.5 78.1 55.2 42.7 3.7 7.5 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.3 10.9 8.0 83.7 57.6 46.4 4.9 8.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.3 10.3 7.2 68.0 49.6 39.8 6.2 10.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.4 8.3 7.8 64.9 46.9 38.2 5.0 9.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.5 8.5 8.6 66.2 47.2 39.1 5.3 9.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.0 5.7 6.5 58.4 42.8 36.1 4.0 7.3 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.2 8.9 93.0 61.2 48.7 4.2 8.3 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.2 9.4 8.3 61.6 43.3 36.4 6.7 11.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.1 7.4 64.3 46.5 39.1 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.6 5.7 8.4 62.4 43.6 36.8 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.2 8.0 8.2 65.4 46.8 38.4 5.0 8.8 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.2 6.3 7.3 61.6 43.8 36.9 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.0 5.9 8.8 63.7 43.9 37.2 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.7 9.9 8.3 63.9 46.1 37.8 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.4 6.6 5.9 60.9 47.7 38.0 3.4 7.2 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.1 8.0 64.1 46.0 38.0 3.7 7.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.4 12.0 9.2 98.3 63.4 50.5 4.0 7.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.1 5.5 8.4 58.6 41.3 35.4 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.1 10.3 7.7 77.3 54.8 44.2 4.7 8.8 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.9 7.5 10.7 62.0 43.8 36.7 5.0 9.1 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.6 7.3 7.6 66.7 48.4 39.7 4.1 7.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.0 9.1 90.7 60.7 48.4 5.0 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.5 8.1 7.7 73.0 52.3 41.9 4.3 7.6 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.2 7.5 7.5 60.6 43.9 36.6 5.0 9.1 14.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.3 10.1 9.7 74.5 52.3 41.3 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.3 5.4 7.3 63.4 46.1 38.1 3.3 6.1 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.0 10.3 9.3 80.3 55.8 43.3 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.2 6.7 6.4 59.8 45.5 37.2 4.1 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.2 9.7 8.9 58.2 41.1 35.3 7.3 12.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.1 7.7 80.0 55.9 44.9 4.5 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------