***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.1 10.7 110.7 66.9 49.7 2.8 5.7 9.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.9 9.1 9.1 106.1 65.9 48.0 2.8 5.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.4 13.9 10.5 111.1 67.1 48.4 4.0 7.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.2 13.0 11.3 105.6 65.0 49.5 5.1 8.7 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.1 15.0 11.9 117.0 69.0 50.7 5.0 8.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.4 11.6 10.8 109.0 65.9 49.2 4.6 7.7 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.0 8.9 105.4 65.7 48.5 3.4 6.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.1 16.9 11.6 101.6 63.3 48.5 7.0 11.8 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.3 11.8 12.5 113.8 67.9 51.1 4.0 7.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.1 13.6 12.6 113.3 67.9 50.7 4.0 7.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.6 12.3 11.2 106.8 65.4 49.1 4.6 7.9 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.5 11.6 10.1 94.8 60.7 47.1 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.9 14.5 11.7 112.9 67.5 49.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.7 16.1 13.7 111.8 67.1 49.6 5.6 9.9 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.3 9.4 9.0 89.5 61.4 46.0 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.1 11.9 11.0 109.8 66.6 50.4 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.7 8.6 101.7 64.4 47.2 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.6 11.1 13.3 109.9 66.5 49.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.4 9.8 9.4 106.5 65.9 47.2 3.4 6.2 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.4 11.9 14.3 96.5 61.3 46.6 4.2 8.2 13.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.7 12.7 11.9 114.4 68.0 49.6 4.3 7.7 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.5 8.4 9.5 105.5 65.5 47.3 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.4 10.2 107.1 65.5 46.3 3.9 6.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.8 13.7 12.7 111.5 67.0 49.2 4.3 8.0 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.0 13.5 12.4 114.9 68.4 51.5 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.4 10.2 10.2 95.4 61.1 45.6 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.6 11.6 112.5 67.6 51.6 3.7 6.8 11.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.5 9.8 99.2 64.1 48.0 3.5 6.6 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.9 16.6 14.0 103.6 63.9 48.6 5.3 10.4 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.6 9.3 106.3 65.9 48.0 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------