***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.7 9.9 88.3 58.2 47.4 1.3 2.7 4.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.4 7.8 79.0 54.9 45.5 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.8 9.0 82.5 56.6 46.6 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.9 10.6 90.2 59.0 46.5 2.2 3.8 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.7 10.5 90.7 58.4 46.1 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.9 5.3 10.4 96.6 60.7 45.8 1.7 3.6 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.1 7.8 80.7 55.3 45.1 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.4 11.9 97.9 61.4 47.1 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.3 11.6 94.5 60.1 48.3 1.6 3.1 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.8 11.9 96.0 60.4 48.0 2.0 4.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 1.8 4.7 10.5 95.2 60.2 47.1 1.5 3.2 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 1.9 5.5 10.8 98.4 61.8 47.1 1.8 3.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.8 5.5 11.4 99.9 62.1 47.3 1.7 3.5 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.7 10.7 82.0 55.7 47.2 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.1 5.3 10.0 87.1 59.3 44.6 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.5 10.6 97.2 61.1 47.6 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.2 7.3 75.7 53.5 44.0 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.8 12.4 93.2 59.3 48.8 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.5 7.8 77.3 54.2 45.2 2.0 3.9 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.5 15.4 94.2 59.9 47.3 2.1 4.5 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 1.9 5.1 10.8 93.1 59.9 48.3 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.7 7.6 74.7 53.4 43.9 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.4 8.0 75.1 53.2 44.7 1.4 3.0 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.0 10.5 84.6 56.3 46.8 2.1 4.0 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.0 5.0 11.4 93.6 60.1 48.7 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.2 10.9 99.2 62.4 45.3 1.9 3.6 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.7 10.6 91.3 59.2 48.5 1.8 3.4 5.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.6 9.9 89.4 59.1 45.8 2.0 3.5 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.6 13.3 92.8 59.0 48.4 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.8 8.0 79.2 54.9 45.1 1.5 3.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------