***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.5 5.7 8.0 79.8 54.5 42.8 2.5 4.9 8.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.0 5.0 7.0 78.8 55.4 41.6 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.5 7.6 78.0 53.8 43.1 2.6 5.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.6 10.8 9.6 88.8 58.7 46.8 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.3 10.0 88.9 58.2 46.4 2.5 5.3 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.5 9.6 90.0 59.0 45.5 2.1 4.1 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.9 4.1 6.8 77.9 54.8 40.4 2.0 3.6 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.7 11.9 10.5 88.8 58.2 44.2 4.5 9.0 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.7 6.2 10.2 87.4 57.5 46.7 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.7 6.5 10.5 86.9 57.2 45.5 2.5 5.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.8 9.6 88.7 58.2 45.1 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.5 5.9 9.4 89.5 58.6 43.8 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.5 5.7 9.9 86.5 57.9 44.9 2.5 4.5 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.8 8.2 9.5 78.6 53.8 42.9 3.8 7.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.0 8.6 84.9 58.5 43.4 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.9 5.1 9.6 89.1 58.6 45.6 1.7 3.7 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.9 4.2 6.7 75.4 53.9 39.4 2.1 3.8 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.2 10.6 84.0 56.0 45.0 3.2 6.0 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.2 5.9 7.2 79.6 55.5 42.4 2.2 4.7 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.7 13.6 85.5 57.3 44.2 2.7 5.3 8.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.2 9.1 83.4 55.9 45.8 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.5 6.0 7.3 79.4 55.9 40.7 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.6 6.0 7.6 79.1 54.5 42.4 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.0 7.1 9.2 80.3 54.7 44.0 2.9 6.0 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.7 9.6 83.6 56.4 45.0 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.0 4.5 10.0 92.4 60.5 43.8 2.0 3.5 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.3 8.6 80.5 54.9 42.8 2.2 4.5 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.3 9.1 89.8 59.5 45.8 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 4.0 9.9 11.2 82.1 55.3 44.2 4.0 8.1 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.8 4.8 7.1 78.2 55.1 42.0 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------