***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 19.6 29.6 37.0 88.8 50.5 46.0 20.2 29.4 40.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 33.9 28.5 31.9 86.5 50.1 45.9 19.3 28.5 39.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 26.9 36.8 34.4 84.3 47.4 43.7 28.2 38.4 50.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 26.9 37.5 39.2 86.8 48.1 43.6 28.3 38.9 50.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 27.4 37.5 40.9 89.2 48.8 44.9 28.8 38.2 48.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.1 27.9 37.3 87.9 46.7 43.7 21.4 29.6 39.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 18.8 29.4 32.4 89.0 51.8 46.8 19.0 28.2 39.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 36.7 46.3 42.3 86.4 46.2 42.3 37.2 49.0 62.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 20.6 28.8 41.7 89.8 49.1 45.6 21.5 29.2 37.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 25.7 33.6 43.5 88.5 47.6 44.0 26.3 35.0 44.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 25.8 32.8 39.5 88.0 47.5 43.5 26.2 34.1 43.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 23.2 30.1 37.6 85.5 45.5 41.8 23.5 32.7 43.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 24.7 31.9 41.8 88.9 47.6 44.3 24.9 33.2 42.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 36.0 44.3 42.2 83.7 44.7 42.1 37.2 47.9 59.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 36.7 27.1 33.5 81.0 47.4 42.3 17.7 29.0 43.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.4 29.5 39.3 88.7 48.0 44.3 22.3 30.6 39.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 31.4 26.9 31.9 87.5 50.9 46.4 17.4 26.3 37.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 22.2 29.3 44.6 85.5 44.7 42.2 23.5 32.0 41.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 22.8 31.3 32.1 84.7 48.5 44.7 22.8 32.1 43.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 28.6 35.6 53.9 83.6 43.9 41.2 29.4 39.2 50.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 24.0 33.5 39.4 89.0 49.4 45.4 25.2 33.8 43.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 34.8 29.1 33.5 87.1 50.2 45.9 19.5 29.1 40.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 21.6 29.0 33.4 83.0 46.4 43.1 22.6 30.9 40.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 31.4 38.6 39.8 83.7 44.8 42.0 33.3 41.1 49.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 26.0 36.8 43.1 90.8 50.9 46.5 26.6 36.3 47.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 17.9 25.0 38.3 87.3 47.4 42.9 18.3 26.3 35.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 21.7 32.3 40.1 90.7 51.4 46.9 22.0 31.6 42.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 20.4 28.3 35.2 84.3 47.6 43.1 20.1 29.8 41.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 39.4 48.0 47.2 83.5 42.8 40.8 41.2 53.2 66.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 19.7 28.4 32.2 85.5 49.3 45.2 19.9 29.0 39.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------