***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 98 2 100 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 0.2 51.9 51.9 -4.7 -2.6 -0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 -2.7 -1.8 -1.5 1.0 59.4 59.1 -4.8 -2.9 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 -0.7 -0.1 -1.5 0.9 58.0 57.8 -2.7 -0.9 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 -3.9 -4.1 -3.0 1.6 65.5 64.4 -7.3 -5.6 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 -2.8 -2.4 -2.9 0.8 57.4 57.2 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 -3.5 -2.6 -4.8 1.5 63.1 62.2 -5.8 -4.0 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 97 3 100 -2.7 -1.9 -1.7 0.8 57.2 57.1 -4.8 -2.8 -0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 48 52 100 -5.8 -5.9 -4.2 1.7 64.8 63.9 -8.8 -7.2 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 -0.5 -0.3 -2.2 2.1 68.2 67.5 -4.2 -2.3 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 -1.2 -1.3 -3.5 1.8 65.9 65.0 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 -2.8 -1.5 -2.9 1.7 64.9 64.3 -5.2 -3.2 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 -3.4 -2.6 -3.9 1.2 60.1 59.7 -5.6 -3.7 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 -2.9 -2.2 -4.3 1.0 58.5 58.2 -5.2 -3.2 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 -1.7 -0.3 -2.2 1.9 66.6 66.1 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 -0.4 0.2 -0.8 3.0 78.4 77.0 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 -2.0 -1.2 -3.8 1.3 61.2 60.7 -4.1 -2.3 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 -2.8 -1.7 -1.2 1.4 62.8 62.5 -4.9 -3.0 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 -3.5 -3.7 -3.9 1.7 64.9 64.1 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 -2.6 -1.6 -1.6 1.1 59.9 59.7 -4.8 -2.8 -0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 -7.0 -6.7 -5.8 0.7 55.9 55.6 -10.1 -7.6 -5.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 -2.4 -1.4 -1.7 1.2 60.8 60.4 -4.8 -2.7 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 -3.0 -2.0 -1.3 1.2 60.6 60.4 -5.2 -3.2 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 -2.8 -1.8 -1.7 1.3 61.3 61.0 -4.9 -3.1 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 -1.2 -1.0 -2.1 2.2 68.7 67.9 -4.9 -3.1 -1.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 -2.5 -2.7 -2.9 -0.1 49.6 49.7 -4.4 -2.7 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 -3.2 -3.2 -4.9 0.3 52.9 52.9 -5.4 -3.5 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 -2.1 -2.4 -2.8 -0.1 48.8 49.0 -4.5 -2.3 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 -1.9 -1.8 -2.3 2.3 70.8 69.6 -5.8 -4.0 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 -4.5 -3.6 -5.0 1.6 63.4 62.7 -6.9 -5.0 -3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 96 4 100 -2.5 -1.9 -1.7 0.7 56.7 56.5 -4.6 -2.6 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------