***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 95 5 100 3.9 3.7 3.5 0.0 50.3 50.3 1.6 3.7 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 3.6 3.9 4.1 0.6 55.3 55.1 1.3 3.3 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 5.3 5.1 4.0 0.1 50.9 51.0 2.8 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 0.9 0.8 1.4 0.4 53.4 53.1 -1.3 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.3 4.4 2.1 -0.3 47.6 48.0 2.6 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.1 2.9 0.0 -1.5 37.0 38.7 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 95 5 100 3.2 3.5 3.8 0.4 54.0 53.9 1.0 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -1.3 1.5 -0.5 45.7 46.6 -2.4 -0.9 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.8 3.4 0.3 52.8 52.6 3.2 5.5 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.3 2.1 -0.4 46.4 47.2 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.5 4.6 2.6 -0.2 48.5 48.9 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.0 4.9 1.9 -0.3 47.2 47.7 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.6 3.6 1.5 -1.3 39.3 40.6 2.8 4.8 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 6.1 5.7 4.1 0.2 51.8 51.8 3.1 5.4 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 5.5 5.6 4.2 2.0 69.0 67.2 1.4 3.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.3 4.9 1.6 -0.6 44.4 45.1 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 3.1 3.7 4.1 0.8 57.5 57.2 0.8 2.8 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.3 1.8 -0.7 44.0 45.2 1.1 2.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 4.1 4.5 4.2 0.6 55.5 55.3 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.3 -0.1 -0.1 -1.5 36.7 39.4 -0.5 1.4 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 5.4 4.8 3.7 -0.1 49.0 49.2 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 3.8 4.3 4.3 0.8 57.5 57.2 1.4 3.5 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 4.0 4.4 4.3 0.7 56.5 56.2 1.6 3.7 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 6.3 5.5 3.6 -0.1 49.3 49.6 3.2 5.6 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 4.0 2.9 2.2 -0.7 43.8 44.4 1.8 3.5 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 1.8 2.8 0.4 -1.5 36.3 38.3 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 5.0 4.0 2.8 -0.5 45.4 45.7 2.3 4.6 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.3 5.6 2.6 0.8 57.8 57.0 2.6 4.6 6.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 1.0 1.2 -0.8 42.8 44.3 -0.1 1.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 3.5 3.7 4.0 0.4 53.7 53.6 1.2 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------