***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.7 3.0 0.1 51.4 52.3 2.5 4.6 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.1 3.3 0.6 54.9 55.5 1.2 3.4 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.1 3.5 0.3 52.4 53.3 2.5 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 55.2 55.3 -1.4 0.5 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.1 4.6 1.7 0.2 51.6 52.5 2.4 4.4 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.9 1.1 -0.1 48.9 50.3 2.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.7 3.6 3.2 0.5 54.5 55.1 0.9 3.1 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.9 0.2 1.5 -0.1 49.2 50.6 -1.3 0.3 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.3 2.4 0.0 50.1 51.2 3.0 5.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.2 1.9 -0.1 48.7 50.1 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.6 1.7 0.1 50.7 51.8 2.5 4.5 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.9 1.6 0.0 49.6 51.2 2.9 5.0 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.1 1.0 -0.2 47.7 49.6 2.3 4.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 49.7 51.2 2.5 5.0 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.3 1.9 0.9 58.4 58.2 2.0 4.2 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.0 1.3 0.0 50.1 51.4 2.9 5.0 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.7 3.5 0.6 55.8 56.1 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.2 2.0 -0.3 47.6 49.4 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.4 3.5 0.5 54.4 55.1 1.5 3.8 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.8 1.1 0.6 -0.2 48.4 50.0 -0.4 1.3 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.0 2.9 0.1 51.1 52.0 2.7 4.8 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.2 3.5 0.6 55.1 55.7 1.2 3.5 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.3 4.0 3.7 0.4 53.2 54.1 1.3 3.5 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.6 2.9 0.0 49.6 51.0 3.3 5.7 7.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.6 3.9 1.6 0.1 50.8 51.4 1.9 3.9 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.3 1.1 0.0 49.6 51.1 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.5 2.5 0.0 49.9 50.9 2.4 4.5 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.6 1.3 0.6 55.8 55.9 2.3 4.8 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.3 1.6 -0.3 47.3 49.4 0.7 2.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.1 3.8 3.2 0.4 53.8 54.6 1.2 3.4 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------