***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 4.3 4.2 3.4 0.2 52.3 52.1 2.7 4.0 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 3.7 3.8 3.7 0.5 56.1 55.8 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 5.2 5.0 3.9 0.2 52.8 52.5 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.5 56.0 54.9 -0.9 0.4 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.0 4.6 2.1 0.1 50.8 50.6 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.6 3.9 1.2 -0.3 45.4 46.1 3.0 4.2 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 3.3 3.4 3.6 0.4 55.2 55.0 1.6 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.2 -0.5 1.8 -0.1 49.2 48.9 -1.4 -0.5 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.6 3.1 0.2 52.6 51.9 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.4 2.3 -0.1 49.2 49.0 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.2 4.8 2.3 0.1 51.6 51.2 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.1 2.1 0.0 50.4 50.2 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.3 1.8 -0.3 46.5 47.1 3.2 4.5 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.7 5.4 3.7 0.2 52.1 51.6 3.8 5.2 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.4 5.1 2.8 1.1 63.6 61.5 2.3 3.9 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.1 1.8 0.0 49.7 49.7 3.7 5.2 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 3.2 3.5 3.7 0.6 57.3 56.7 1.6 2.9 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.2 2.6 2.3 -0.2 47.5 47.6 1.7 2.8 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 4.2 4.3 3.8 0.5 55.9 55.5 2.3 3.8 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.4 1.3 0.8 -0.4 44.0 44.8 0.6 1.6 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.0 3.4 0.1 51.0 50.8 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 4.0 4.2 3.9 0.6 57.1 56.5 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.1 4.0 0.5 55.6 55.0 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.7 3.5 0.1 51.1 50.7 4.1 5.6 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.0 3.5 2.1 -0.1 48.7 48.8 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.0 1.3 -0.3 44.9 45.8 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 4.9 4.4 2.9 -0.1 49.2 49.2 3.1 4.5 5.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.5 2.0 0.7 58.0 56.6 3.1 4.7 6.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.1 1.8 -0.2 47.0 47.2 1.2 2.3 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 3.7 3.7 3.6 0.4 55.0 54.7 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------