***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.0 8.8 84.6 56.1 46.8 2.1 4.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.4 4.9 7.7 80.0 54.4 43.8 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.2 8.0 76.1 51.8 43.4 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.4 8.9 9.8 87.7 56.4 45.5 4.2 7.4 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.9 8.9 9.3 83.0 54.4 44.9 4.7 7.9 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.3 10.0 100.8 62.4 48.3 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.8 7.9 85.2 57.1 46.2 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.4 12.0 10.0 85.3 54.8 44.5 6.3 10.5 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.0 6.9 9.3 80.4 52.5 44.6 3.7 6.4 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.0 7.8 9.5 81.9 53.4 43.7 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.2 9.4 83.5 54.0 44.8 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.0 9.6 86.3 55.0 44.8 3.1 6.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.1 10.6 95.4 60.0 47.6 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.1 10.9 11.4 86.6 55.8 46.4 6.3 9.6 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.5 6.3 8.0 79.7 55.2 41.5 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.6 9.8 92.6 58.9 48.4 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.6 7.9 83.8 57.0 45.1 2.4 4.5 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.8 10.4 84.3 54.0 45.5 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.6 5.3 7.9 79.7 53.8 43.5 2.7 4.7 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.3 13.2 87.9 56.1 46.2 4.0 7.5 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.2 9.0 79.2 52.2 45.1 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.4 6.1 8.8 88.7 58.6 46.1 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.1 5.9 8.4 78.8 52.5 42.8 3.3 5.6 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.8 8.3 9.8 81.5 52.8 44.8 4.6 7.8 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.8 10.6 90.5 58.4 48.6 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.2 10.3 92.4 58.2 45.2 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.0 10.2 92.9 59.8 49.5 3.1 5.3 8.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.9 6.3 8.3 82.3 54.8 42.1 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 12.5 11.5 85.3 54.5 46.0 6.7 11.1 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.0 7.7 79.6 53.8 43.3 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------