***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.6 6.8 11.2 119.9 70.1 56.5 1.4 3.2 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.2 7.2 9.0 114.4 68.5 55.5 1.9 3.7 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.6 8.4 11.5 124.2 71.3 57.0 2.0 4.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.4 7.8 13.3 122.5 70.9 54.6 2.3 4.2 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.9 9.0 13.7 125.7 71.6 55.5 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 1.7 7.2 12.7 127.1 71.9 54.2 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.9 6.5 8.9 114.1 68.7 54.4 1.6 3.3 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.1 10.5 13.4 120.9 69.9 53.4 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 4.3 6.6 14.6 128.5 72.3 56.8 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.1 8.9 14.2 123.0 70.4 53.8 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.0 7.4 13.0 127.2 71.9 54.9 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.8 7.5 12.6 127.9 72.1 55.2 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.8 7.6 13.5 129.1 72.4 55.4 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.7 13.6 113.8 67.7 55.6 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.4 7.6 11.8 114.5 69.6 51.3 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.0 7.5 13.0 128.5 72.3 55.1 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.3 6.3 8.3 106.0 66.0 52.2 2.1 3.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.6 8.6 14.8 120.8 69.7 54.1 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.5 7.5 9.5 115.4 68.7 56.4 1.9 3.9 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.7 9.4 16.5 109.6 66.3 52.3 2.4 5.1 9.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.1 8.1 13.6 128.0 72.2 57.3 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.4 6.3 8.6 102.8 64.6 52.3 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.7 6.7 10.6 116.7 68.9 56.9 1.5 3.2 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.3 7.8 13.8 123.3 70.7 55.9 1.8 3.7 6.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.4 7.6 12.9 118.2 69.5 56.4 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.7 6.2 12.6 126.7 71.8 53.4 1.7 3.1 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.6 7.8 11.6 116.8 69.2 56.6 1.9 4.0 7.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.3 7.3 12.6 123.6 71.4 53.4 2.2 4.0 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.5 11.6 15.3 115.7 68.0 53.8 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.0 6.9 9.5 116.1 69.0 55.7 1.7 3.5 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------