***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 19.5 23.5 31.5 74.9 40.0 38.2 20.1 29.0 39.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 16.6 20.6 26.2 71.3 37.3 35.9 18.4 27.5 38.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 26.2 31.2 31.5 74.4 39.4 37.5 27.6 37.3 48.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 27.2 33.4 36.9 77.6 41.6 38.5 28.3 38.5 50.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 26.5 34.2 40.3 83.3 44.8 40.7 27.8 37.0 47.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 20.9 28.2 39.6 88.2 48.0 43.4 21.0 29.2 38.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 16.2 20.4 25.7 72.2 37.6 36.0 18.3 27.1 37.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 35.8 46.2 43.8 87.5 47.1 43.5 36.5 48.3 61.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 20.4 26.0 41.1 84.1 44.8 40.8 21.0 28.5 37.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 39.2 33.7 45.7 90.2 49.1 44.5 25.3 34.1 44.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 24.4 30.6 40.0 84.6 45.1 41.5 25.1 32.9 41.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 21.8 28.1 38.3 83.0 43.6 40.7 22.8 31.6 41.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 23.7 32.4 44.4 89.6 48.5 43.9 25.1 33.1 42.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 36.8 42.5 41.7 78.8 40.7 39.0 37.8 48.1 59.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 16.3 21.5 31.1 70.4 39.9 36.4 17.2 28.6 43.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 21.2 27.2 39.4 84.0 44.6 41.0 22.0 29.9 38.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 15.1 18.3 25.3 70.2 36.3 35.0 16.9 25.6 35.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 36.3 31.5 48.3 91.3 49.7 45.0 23.3 31.7 41.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 20.8 24.3 27.3 71.2 37.4 36.2 22.1 31.4 42.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 43.4 37.0 57.1 89.1 48.1 44.5 28.6 38.1 49.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 23.7 29.7 37.5 80.4 42.8 39.6 24.8 33.5 43.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 17.3 20.6 27.1 70.0 36.4 35.5 18.6 28.1 39.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 21.4 24.4 30.1 72.0 37.1 36.2 22.5 30.8 40.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 32.5 38.8 41.3 83.7 44.6 41.1 33.6 41.3 49.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 25.4 31.4 39.0 80.8 43.8 41.0 25.5 34.9 45.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 17.2 24.3 40.3 86.4 46.6 42.4 18.2 25.9 35.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 20.7 25.9 34.6 78.6 42.6 40.4 21.1 29.9 40.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 18.7 24.0 33.5 75.5 41.3 38.0 19.7 29.1 40.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 39.9 51.2 51.3 90.3 48.6 44.5 40.3 52.4 65.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 18.5 22.3 27.0 71.8 37.6 36.3 20.1 28.7 38.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------