***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.7 4.0 0.7 56.6 55.0 1.7 3.8 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 4.0 4.1 3.6 0.6 55.5 54.5 1.5 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.8 3.9 0.5 55.4 54.0 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -1.5 2.3 2.3 1.3 64.0 58.7 -1.2 0.7 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.2 6.5 3.4 1.4 64.5 60.4 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.0 5.6 2.5 0.9 61.8 57.3 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.8 3.9 3.5 0.6 56.0 55.1 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 0.8 0.9 3.5 1.8 70.9 64.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 8.1 7.8 4.3 1.6 66.7 62.1 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 7.2 6.9 3.8 1.6 67.5 62.2 2.7 4.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 7.3 6.5 3.4 1.2 63.6 59.9 2.7 4.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 7.8 7.3 3.4 1.3 65.9 61.1 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 7.2 6.5 3.6 1.1 63.7 60.0 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.3 4.2 1.2 61.5 58.7 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.7 6.0 3.8 1.7 68.3 61.9 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.0 3.1 1.0 61.8 58.6 3.4 5.6 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 3.6 3.8 3.3 0.7 57.1 55.9 1.1 3.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 5.1 4.9 3.9 1.8 69.6 63.8 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.7 4.7 3.6 0.6 55.6 54.6 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 4.1 4.8 3.2 2.2 77.0 67.8 -0.6 1.4 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.4 4.3 1.0 60.7 57.6 2.8 5.0 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 4.3 4.6 3.6 0.8 57.8 56.6 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.7 3.7 0.7 56.7 55.4 1.8 3.9 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.6 4.2 1.2 62.5 59.1 3.4 5.9 8.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.5 4.8 3.6 1.0 60.7 57.4 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 6.5 6.1 3.2 1.2 67.3 61.5 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.0 3.8 0.7 57.7 55.7 2.8 5.0 7.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.8 3.0 1.3 63.9 58.8 2.8 5.0 7.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 4.4 4.7 3.5 2.1 73.3 66.5 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.1 3.7 0.5 55.2 54.3 1.4 3.5 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------