***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 6.8 6.7 4.8 2.3 68.7 66.9 1.6 4.0 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.1 6.4 4.9 2.7 71.3 69.2 1.2 3.4 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 7.8 7.9 5.0 2.5 70.2 68.2 2.3 4.8 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 3.3 3.5 3.0 2.6 72.2 69.3 -1.6 0.6 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.4 3.4 2.5 71.3 68.9 2.0 4.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 6.6 6.8 2.9 2.5 72.0 69.8 1.8 3.9 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.8 4.8 2.6 70.9 68.9 0.8 3.0 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 1.1 1.4 3.2 2.5 73.0 70.5 -2.1 -0.6 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 8.4 8.4 4.2 2.4 70.3 68.1 2.8 5.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 6.8 7.1 3.8 2.5 71.6 69.3 2.0 4.2 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 7.5 7.8 3.4 2.5 72.3 70.0 2.1 4.5 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 8.0 8.3 3.4 2.5 72.8 70.5 2.5 4.9 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 7.3 7.4 3.0 2.4 71.9 69.8 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 8.7 8.7 4.8 2.7 71.2 69.2 2.7 5.4 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 7.0 7.3 3.4 2.7 73.3 69.8 1.6 3.9 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 8.0 8.2 3.1 2.5 72.1 69.9 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 5.5 5.8 4.9 2.7 71.3 69.2 0.8 3.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 4.8 5.0 3.8 2.5 71.5 69.4 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 6.9 7.1 5.1 2.7 71.3 69.2 1.4 3.9 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 4.1 4.4 2.5 2.5 73.0 70.4 -0.6 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.7 4.5 2.4 69.6 67.4 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 6.9 7.0 5.1 2.8 71.8 69.7 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 6.4 6.5 5.2 2.7 71.2 69.2 1.3 3.6 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 9.1 9.1 4.6 2.6 71.0 68.9 3.3 5.9 8.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 6.1 6.0 3.5 2.3 69.6 67.5 1.3 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 6.4 6.4 2.8 2.2 71.4 69.2 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.2 4.1 2.2 68.7 66.8 2.0 4.5 6.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 8.0 8.3 3.3 2.7 72.8 69.8 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.4 3.3 2.5 71.8 69.7 0.3 2.5 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 6.2 6.3 4.9 2.6 70.8 68.8 1.0 3.3 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------