***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 4.7 5.5 4.3 1.4 60.8 59.5 2.5 4.3 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 5.2 4.9 4.5 1.9 64.2 62.7 1.3 3.3 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 5.2 6.0 4.5 1.5 61.4 60.0 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 0.9 1.9 2.4 1.6 63.0 61.4 -1.6 0.4 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 4.9 5.5 2.8 1.2 60.2 58.9 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 4.7 4.7 1.7 0.6 55.5 54.3 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 3.4 4.4 4.3 1.8 63.6 62.1 0.9 2.9 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 0.7 0.9 2.2 0.8 57.6 56.4 -1.4 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 5.9 6.4 3.5 1.1 59.3 58.0 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.1 2.9 0.9 57.9 56.6 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 5.0 5.4 2.6 1.0 58.7 57.5 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.8 2.4 0.8 57.3 56.3 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 4.9 4.8 1.9 0.5 54.7 54.0 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 5.7 6.3 4.0 1.2 59.7 58.6 2.6 5.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 4.9 6.2 3.0 1.9 65.8 63.8 2.1 4.3 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.7 2.2 0.9 57.5 56.5 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 4.8 4.6 4.5 2.0 64.8 63.2 1.0 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.0 3.1 2.8 0.8 56.7 55.6 1.0 2.5 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 5.6 5.3 4.7 1.9 63.9 62.4 1.6 3.7 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 1.8 1.8 1.2 0.7 56.4 55.1 -0.5 1.2 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 5.3 6.0 4.0 1.3 60.2 58.8 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 5.6 5.4 4.7 2.0 65.2 63.6 1.5 3.5 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 4.1 5.0 4.7 1.7 62.8 61.4 1.5 3.5 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 6.3 6.7 3.8 1.1 58.7 57.5 3.3 5.6 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 4.2 4.9 2.9 1.3 60.9 59.5 2.0 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.8 1.7 0.5 55.1 54.3 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 4.6 5.3 3.5 1.2 60.2 58.9 2.3 4.2 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.5 6.7 2.7 1.6 63.5 61.8 2.6 4.9 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 3.1 3.1 2.2 0.7 56.1 55.1 0.5 2.4 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 3.7 4.7 4.5 1.7 63.2 61.8 1.2 3.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------