***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.2 4.4 1.6 66.5 65.1 2.8 4.0 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 4.9 4.8 4.5 1.9 68.1 66.8 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 6.3 6.0 4.6 1.7 66.8 65.4 3.4 4.7 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.9 70.4 68.1 -0.9 0.3 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 6.0 5.9 3.2 1.8 69.0 67.1 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 5.3 5.3 2.3 1.4 67.1 65.1 3.0 4.2 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 4.6 4.4 4.3 1.8 67.9 66.6 1.7 3.0 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 0.6 0.6 2.9 1.7 70.3 67.9 -1.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 6.9 6.8 4.0 1.8 68.8 67.0 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 5.8 5.8 3.4 1.7 69.1 67.0 3.3 4.5 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 6.0 6.0 3.1 1.6 68.3 66.5 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.4 3.0 1.5 68.4 66.4 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 5.8 5.7 2.7 1.3 66.7 64.9 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 6.9 6.7 4.4 1.8 68.0 66.5 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 5.9 6.0 3.4 2.2 72.8 70.0 2.4 3.9 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 6.5 6.5 2.7 1.5 67.4 65.7 3.9 5.2 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 4.5 4.4 4.4 2.0 68.7 67.4 1.7 2.9 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 3.8 3.8 3.4 1.7 69.4 67.3 1.9 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 5.4 5.2 4.6 1.9 68.1 66.8 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 2.8 3.0 2.1 1.7 72.3 69.3 0.7 1.7 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.2 4.3 1.7 67.5 65.9 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 5.4 5.2 4.6 2.0 69.3 68.0 2.3 3.7 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.0 4.7 1.9 68.1 66.7 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 7.1 7.0 4.2 1.7 67.9 66.2 4.2 5.6 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 5.0 4.9 3.3 1.7 68.2 66.3 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 5.4 5.3 2.4 1.3 67.5 65.3 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 5.9 5.8 3.9 1.6 66.7 65.2 3.2 4.5 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 6.7 6.7 3.0 2.0 70.7 68.4 3.1 4.7 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 3.5 3.6 2.8 1.7 70.4 68.0 1.3 2.3 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 4.9 4.7 4.5 1.8 67.6 66.3 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------