***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 2.9 3.6 3.5 34.2 27.7 22.3 4.5 7.8 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 2.7 4.6 4.0 44.9 38.4 27.0 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 3.8 4.5 3.6 34.7 28.5 22.5 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 3.8 5.5 5.7 47.3 34.6 26.9 5.1 8.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 3.7 4.3 4.2 34.4 26.7 21.3 5.4 8.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 3.1 4.3 4.2 40.4 32.7 24.0 4.4 7.1 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 2.9 5.0 4.2 46.9 39.6 28.5 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 4.8 5.3 4.1 33.4 24.7 20.2 7.1 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 2.2 2.4 3.9 32.0 24.4 20.0 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 2.9 3.3 4.3 34.2 25.3 20.8 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 3.4 4.2 3.9 35.4 27.9 21.8 4.9 8.0 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 3.4 3.9 3.6 33.6 24.9 19.7 5.4 8.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 3.2 3.6 3.7 34.3 25.6 20.1 4.9 8.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 4.1 4.4 4.4 33.5 25.4 20.7 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 2.8 5.4 6.4 53.2 43.1 31.1 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 2.3 3.0 3.8 35.1 27.9 21.4 3.8 6.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 2.9 5.3 4.2 48.8 41.4 28.8 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 2.9 2.9 4.6 32.8 23.2 19.5 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 3.1 4.7 3.9 42.1 35.5 25.3 4.3 7.2 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 3.4 2.7 4.8 28.6 19.0 16.6 5.1 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 2.6 2.8 3.6 31.8 23.9 19.6 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 2.6 4.4 4.3 47.6 38.2 26.3 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 2.7 3.5 3.9 37.6 31.0 23.3 3.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 3.7 4.2 4.2 33.4 25.9 21.0 5.3 8.8 13.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 3.9 4.3 4.5 35.8 28.5 23.4 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 2.5 2.9 3.5 31.4 23.8 18.4 4.1 6.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 3.1 3.6 4.1 36.6 28.7 23.6 4.4 7.9 12.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 3.2 5.2 5.6 47.7 37.3 27.7 4.4 7.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 3.9 3.6 4.7 31.9 22.5 19.0 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 2.6 4.1 3.9 41.8 35.6 26.1 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------