***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 7.4 8.9 12.5 138.4 75.1 64.3 2.3 4.2 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 9.8 12.0 135.1 74.2 61.5 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 11.7 13.3 12.9 132.9 73.7 62.9 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.3 11.2 11.9 115.3 68.8 57.4 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.4 13.1 13.5 127.9 72.2 61.9 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 11.3 12.1 12.6 129.9 72.6 61.8 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.2 10.0 11.7 138.1 74.9 61.4 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 15.5 17.3 14.8 135.8 74.3 63.1 4.9 8.7 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 10.5 11.6 14.8 135.3 74.2 64.4 2.8 5.3 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 12.6 14.4 15.7 138.9 75.1 64.7 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.1 11.2 12.6 130.5 72.9 61.8 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.0 13.1 12.2 128.4 72.3 61.0 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 12.3 13.2 12.4 131.7 73.2 62.5 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 14.9 17.1 16.8 141.3 75.6 64.4 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.1 8.5 10.5 99.0 64.3 51.4 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.2 11.1 11.5 125.1 71.3 60.0 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 9.0 10.2 11.0 134.7 74.0 60.3 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 11.7 13.2 17.6 142.7 76.0 65.4 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 9.7 10.7 12.4 133.4 73.8 61.8 3.3 5.7 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 15.0 17.0 18.9 138.0 74.8 63.3 3.6 7.3 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 11.1 12.9 13.6 134.8 74.1 64.1 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 9.9 10.8 11.7 131.9 73.3 60.7 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 10.5 11.3 13.4 133.4 73.7 62.4 3.5 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 12.7 14.4 16.1 139.9 75.3 64.4 3.9 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 10.4 11.6 13.9 131.8 73.3 63.1 3.6 6.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.8 11.7 11.5 124.3 71.1 59.6 2.1 5.0 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 9.0 10.5 13.7 138.4 75.0 64.3 2.9 5.1 8.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.7 8.3 10.7 106.5 66.1 53.5 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 18.1 21.1 18.6 144.9 76.5 65.5 4.2 8.4 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.2 9.8 12.2 135.1 74.2 62.3 2.7 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------